Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T20:28:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
88 0x8895…63e1 crypto 71 markets active 2h ago coverage 564d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Wins small, loses big
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! loses its big bets
Total PnL −$36 (-0%) realized −$36 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate56%39W / 31L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$173per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$26now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 55% −$32
politics 43% −$5
crypto 1% +$1
other 1% $0
tech 0% $0
finance 0% $0
world 0% $0
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 5 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
all 70 -0.6% -10.1% 56% 0% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.1% 0% -9.8%
10% -18.7% 0% -18.4%
15% -26.5% 0% -26.3%
20% -33.7% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 45% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) wins small, loses big bets
Persistence
early -2% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.03 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.04 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

564d coverage
Net worth$26
Realized−$36
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses39 / 31
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)70 / 71
History coverage564d
Avg bet$173
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 70 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $35 by end of June? No 100¢ 100¢ $26 $26 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (LOW) $320 in May? Jun 02 $4 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 in May? Jun 02 $33 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $2.20 in April? May 05 $34 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $0.60 in March? Apr 09 $7 $0 +0%
Will Google reach $420 in March? Apr 09 $29 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $0.80 in January? Feb 08 $29 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $90 in November? Dec 01 $34 $0 +1%
Will Leverkusen win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 07 $2,396 −$2 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Nov 07 $2,630 −$3 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Nov 07 $2,588 −$3 -0%
Will Monad perform an airdrop by October 31? Oct 16 $19 $0 +1%
Will XRP reach $5.40 in August? Sep 18 $2 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $2100 in July? Aug 03 $3 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4000 in June? Jul 02 $1 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200k in May? Jun 05 $1 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid dip to $9 before June? Jun 05 $2 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150k in May? Jun 05 $2 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $40k in April? May 02 $1 $0 +0%
Solana above $130 on April 25? May 02 $2 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.50 in April? May 02 $2 $0 +0%
Bitcoin above $82,000 on April 18? Apr 20 $1 $0 +9%
Will XRP dip to $1.00 in March? Apr 03 $2 $0 +1%
Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire by Friday? Mar 15 $1 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $91000 and $93000 on Mar 14? Mar 15 $3 $0 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $115,000 by February 28, 2025? Mar 05 $1 $0 +0%
Will Trump post 220-239 times on Truth Feb 21-28? Mar 05 $1 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $95000 and $97000 on Feb 28? Mar 05 $2 $0 +0%
Will the Chicago Bulls win the 2025 NBA Finals? Feb 26 $1,635 −$2 -0%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Feb 26 $818 −$2 -0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2025 NBA Finals? Feb 26 $812 −$1 -0%
Will the Charlotte Hornets win the 2025 NBA Finals? Feb 26 $820 −$1 -0%
Solana above $200 on February 21? Feb 22 $2 $0 +1%
Dogecoin above $0.34 on February 7? Feb 08 $1 $0 +0%
Hyperliquid exploit before February? Feb 03 $2 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by January 31, 2025? Feb 03 $2 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $120 by January 31, 2025? Feb 03 $2 $0 +0%
Will Biden resign before inauguration? Jan 21 $2 $0 +0%
Dogecoin above $0.34 on January 17? Jan 18 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin above $95,000 on January 17? Jan 18 $1 $0 +10%
Will LA wildfires burn 70-80k acres by Sunday? Jan 13 $1 $0 +0%
Jaguars vs. Titans Jan 12 $41 −$23 -55%
Will 'Wicked' gross more than $500 million domestically by January 9? Jan 12 $1 $0 +0%
Fact Check: Connection between New Orleans and Las Vegas attacks? Jan 12 $1 $0 +0%
Solana above $215 on January 10? Jan 12 $3 $0 +0%
Cybertruck explosion perp arrested by Sunday? Jan 06 $2 $0 +0%
Ethereum above $3,300 on January 3? Jan 04 $2 $0 +0%
Bears vs. Vikings Dec 11 $4 $0 -0%
Bengals vs. Titans Dec 11 $23 $0 -0%
Will Tottenham win on 2024-12-15? Dec 11 $8 $0 -0%
Blackhawks vs. Islanders Dec 11 $13 −$1 -7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $35 by end of June? BUY No 100¢ $26 2h
Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (LOW) $320 in May? BUY No 100¢ $4 31d
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $33 31d
Will XRP reach $2.20 in April? BUY No 100¢ $34 58d
Will XRP dip to $0.60 in March? BUY No 100¢ $7 86d
Will Google reach $420 in March? BUY No 100¢ $29 89d
Will XRP dip to $0.80 in January? BUY No 100¢ $29 149d
Will Solana dip to $90 in November? BUY No 99¢ $34 208d
Will Leverkusen win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL No 100¢ $2,394 228d
Will Leverkusen win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 100¢ $2,396 228d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $2,627 228d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $2,630 228d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $2,585 228d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $2,588 228d
Will Monad perform an airdrop by October 31? SELL No 97¢ $19 250d
Will Monad perform an airdrop by October 31? BUY No 96¢ $19 252d
Will XRP reach $5.40 in August? BUY No 100¢ $2 301d
Will Ethereum dip to $2100 in July? BUY No 100¢ $3 332d
Will Ethereum reach $4000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $1 364d
Will Hyperliquid dip to $9 before June? BUY No 100¢ $2 393d
Will Bitcoin reach $150k in May? BUY No 100¢ $2 393d
Will Bitcoin reach $200k in May? BUY No 100¢ $1 393d
Solana above $130 on April 25? BUY Yes 100¢ $2 424d
Will XRP reach $3.50 in April? BUY No 100¢ $2 424d
Will Bitcoin dip to $40k in April? BUY No 100¢ $1 424d
Bitcoin above $82,000 on April 18? BUY Yes 92¢ $1 432d
Will XRP dip to $1.00 in March? BUY No 99¢ $2 457d
Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire by Friday? BUY No 99¢ $1 467d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $91000 and $93000 on Mar 14? BUY No 98¢ $3 467d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $95000 and $97000 on Feb 28? BUY No 100¢ $2 481d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $26.48 · official $26.48 (match) · 178 history records