Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T09:25:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
88 0x8893…3af7 crypto 438 markets active 1h ago coverage 59d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$105 (-5%) realized −$105 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate50%219W / 219L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day11.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$11
7 days−$62
14 days−$23
30 days−$80
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$136
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-18.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 256 -11.1% -19.6% 56% 54% -16.5%
≤30d 370 -7.9% -16.7% 52% 48% -13.7%
≤90d 438 -10.2% -18.8% 50% 46% -15.9%
all 438 -10.2% -18.8% 50% 46% -15.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.8% 46% -15.9%
10% -26.6% 44% -23.9%
15% -33.7% 39% -31.3%
20% -40.2% 29% -38.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -17% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.78 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

59d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$105
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses219 / 219
Open positions0
Markets (closed)438 / 438
History coverage59d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day11.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 438 Trades
no open positions (180 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 13 $3 +$2 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 13 $4 +$1 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 13 $4 +$1 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 13 $3 +$2 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 13 $4 +$2 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 13 $3 +$2 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 13 $3 +$2 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 13 $3 +$2 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 13 $4 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 13 $3 +$2 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 13 $3 +$2 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 13 $3 +$2 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 13 $3 +$2 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 13 $4 +$1 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 13 $3 +$2 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 13 $3 +$2 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 13 $3 +$2 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 13 $3 +$2 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 13 $3 +$2 +60%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $4 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $3 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $3 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $3 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $3 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $3 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $3 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $3 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $3 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $4 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $3 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $4 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $2 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $1 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $3 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $3 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $3 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $3 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $3 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $3 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $3 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $3 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $3 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $3 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $4 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $4 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $3 40h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 919 history records