Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T13:40:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
88 0x8892…74bd other 54 markets active 1h ago coverage 52d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate93%50W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$38per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit43%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$27
7 days−$12
14 days+$16
30 days−$13
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 66% −$32
finance 21% +$23
tech 9% +$2
sports 4% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-7.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 +3.1% -6.7% 94% 11% -10.6%
≤30d 50 +1.6% -8.1% 96% 10% -10.1%
≤90d 54 +2.1% -7.7% 93% 11% -9.8%
all 54 +2.1% -7.7% 93% 11% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.7% 11% -9.8%
10% -16.5% 6% -18.4%
15% -24.6% 2% -26.3%
20% -32.0% 2% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
88% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +3% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$23 · ×0.08 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

52d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)93%
Wins / losses50 / 4
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)54 / 54
History coverage52d
Avg bet$38
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit43%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 54 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $3.20 Week of June 22 2026? Jun 23 $29 +$3 +9%
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $64 Week of June 22 2026? Jun 23 $24 +$4 +18%
Will Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit (LOW) $120 in June? Jun 22 $22 $0 +1%
Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (LOW) $560 Week of June 22 2026? Jun 22 $40 $0 +0%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $745 Week of June 22 2026? Jun 22 $42 +$2 +5%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $750 Week of June 22 2026? Jun 22 $40 $0 +1%
Will Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) hit (HIGH) $1,170 Week of June 22 20 Jun 22 $40 $0 +1%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 Week of June 22 2026? Jun 22 $40 $0 +1%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,200 Week of June 22 2026? Jun 22 $37 +$3 +8%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,150 Week of June 22 2026? Jun 22 $25 +$13 +51%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,200 Week of June 15 2026? Jun 19 $90 −$54 -60%
Will Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) hit (HIGH) $1,140 Week of June 15 20 Jun 18 $87 +$2 +2%
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $66 Week of June 15 2026? Jun 18 $86 +$1 +1%
Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (LOW) $360 Week of June 15 2026? Jun 18 $82 +$3 +4%
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $67 Week of June 15 2026? Jun 17 $80 +$3 +4%
Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (LOW) $382.50 Week of June 15 20 Jun 17 $79 +$1 +1%
Will Opendoor Technologies Inc. (OPEN) hit (HIGH) $5.00 Week of June 1 Jun 16 $74 +$5 +7%
Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (HIGH) $375 Week of June 15 2026? Jun 16 $59 +$1 +2%
Will Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) hit (HIGH) $1,080 Week of June 15 20 Jun 15 $70 +$3 +4%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $755 Week of June 15 2026? Jun 15 $68 +$3 +4%
Will Apple (AAPL) hit (HIGH) $296 Week of June 15 2026? Jun 15 $66 +$1 +2%
Will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (HIGH) $138 Week of June 15 2026? Jun 15 $63 +$3 +5%
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $71 Week of June 15 2026? Jun 15 $55 +$9 +16%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in June? Jun 15 $20 $0 +0%
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $69 Week of June 15 2026? Jun 15 $21 $0 +2%
Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (HIGH) $165 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 12 $25 $0 +1%
Will Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) hit (LOW) $80 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 12 $27 +$1 +2%
Will Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) hit (LOW) $80 in June? Jun 12 $27 +$1 +2%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in June? Jun 12 $20 +$1 +6%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 12 $24 +$5 +21%
Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (LOW) $397.50 Week of June 8 202 Jun 11 $24 $0 +1%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,050 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 11 $20 $0 +1%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,100 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 10 $23 $0 +2%
Will Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) hit (LOW) $870 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 09 $30 $0 +1%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 08 $18 +$1 +3%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,300 in June? Jun 08 $27 +$1 +4%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,350 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 08 $44 $0 +1%
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $68 in June? Jun 05 $24 $0 +1%
Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (LOW) $390 Week of June 1 2026? Jun 05 $10 $0 +0%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $740 Week of June 1 2026? Jun 05 $10 $0 +0%
Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (LOW) $180 in June? Jun 05 $43 +$1 +2%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $750 Week of June 1 2026? Jun 05 $43 $0 +1%
Will Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) hit (LOW) $248 in June? Jun 03 $42 +$1 +2%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 Week of June 1 2026? Jun 03 $40 +$2 +6%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $760 in June? Jun 02 $20 $0 +0%
Will Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) hit (HIGH) $1,050 Week of June 1 202 Jun 02 $20 $0 +1%
Will Opendoor Technologies Inc. (OPEN) hit (HIGH) $5.50 Week of June 1 Jun 01 $15 $0 +2%
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.20 in June? Jun 01 $21 $0 +1%
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $76 in June? Jun 01 $14 +$4 +27%
Will Opendoor Technologies Inc. (OPEN) hit (HIGH) $5.50 in May? May 29 $41 −$40 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $3.20 Week of June 22 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $32 43m
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $3.20 Week of June 22 2026? BUY Yes 91¢ $29 2h
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $64 Week of June 22 2026? BUY Yes 84¢ $24 11h
Will Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit (LOW) $120 in June? BUY Yes 99¢ $22 21h
Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (LOW) $560 Week of June 22 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $40 22h
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $745 Week of June 22 2026? BUY Yes 95¢ $42 22h
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $750 Week of June 22 2026? BUY Yes 99¢ $40 23h
Will Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) hit (HIGH) $1,170 Week of June 22 20 BUY Yes 99¢ $40 24h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 Week of June 22 2026? BUY Yes 99¢ $40 31h
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,200 Week of June 22 2026? BUY Yes 92¢ $37 36h
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,150 Week of June 22 2026? BUY Yes 65¢ $25 39h
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,200 Week of June 15 2026? SELL Yes 20¢ $36 4d
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,200 Week of June 15 2026? BUY Yes 48¢ $90 4d
Will Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) hit (HIGH) $1,140 Week of June 15 20 BUY Yes 98¢ $87 4d
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $66 Week of June 15 2026? BUY Yes 99¢ $86 4d
Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (LOW) $360 Week of June 15 2026? BUY Yes 96¢ $82 5d
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $67 Week of June 15 2026? BUY Yes 96¢ $80 5d
Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (LOW) $382.50 Week of June 15 20 BUY Yes 99¢ $79 5d
Will Opendoor Technologies Inc. (OPEN) hit (HIGH) $5.00 Week of June 1 BUY Yes 93¢ $74 6d
Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (HIGH) $375 Week of June 15 2026? BUY Yes 98¢ $59 6d
Will Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) hit (HIGH) $1,080 Week of June 15 20 BUY Yes 96¢ $70 7d
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $755 Week of June 15 2026? BUY Yes 96¢ $68 7d
Will Apple (AAPL) hit (HIGH) $296 Week of June 15 2026? BUY Yes 98¢ $66 7d
Will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (HIGH) $138 Week of June 15 2026? BUY Yes 95¢ $63 8d
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $71 Week of June 15 2026? BUY Yes 86¢ $55 8d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in June? BUY Yes 100¢ $20 8d
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $69 Week of June 15 2026? BUY Yes 98¢ $21 8d
Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (HIGH) $165 Week of June 8 2026? BUY Yes 99¢ $25 10d
Will Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) hit (LOW) $80 Week of June 8 2026? BUY Yes 98¢ $27 10d
Will Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) hit (LOW) $80 in June? BUY Yes 98¢ $27 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 109 history records