Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T22:22:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
88 0x8891…b5fc weather 1071 markets active 1h ago coverage 22d ⚠
BOTnot copyable weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 22d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (117 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$3,226 (+17%) realized +$3,220 · open +$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate83%977W / 202L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day116.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$907now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 22d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 96% +$748
other 3% +$83
world 1% +$6
sports 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (117 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-13.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 503 -22.7% -30.1% 66% 7% -31.4%
≤30d 1179 -4.0% -13.1% 83% 8% -14.4%
≤90d 1179 -4.0% -13.1% 83% 8% -14.4%
all 1179 -4.0% -13.1% 83% 8% -14.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover116.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.1% 8% -14.4%
10% ← realistic here -21.4% 4% -22.6%
15% -29.0% 3% -30.0%
20% -36.0% 3% -36.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
90% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +11% → late -19% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$13 · ×0.1 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.46 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

22d coverage
Net worth$907
Realized+$3,220
Unrealized+$6
Win rate (resolved)83%
Wins / losses977 / 202
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions65
Markets (closed)1179 / 1071
History coverage22d ⚠
Avg bet$18
Trades / day116.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 65 History 1179 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
World Cup: Winless Team? Yes 99¢ 100¢ $48 $48 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 17? No 98¢ 99¢ $42 $43 +$1 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on June 17? No 99¢ 99¢ $33 $33 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 20°C on June 16? No 94¢ 100¢ $28 $30 +$2 (+6%)
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? No 89¢ 91¢ $28 $29 +$1 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 17? No 95¢ 99¢ $26 $27 +$1 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 17? No 98¢ 98¢ $23 $24 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 17? No 98¢ 97¢ $23 $23 −$0 (-0%)
Will Japan reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? No 95¢ 96¢ $23 $23 +$0 (+0%)
Will Norway score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 96¢ 95¢ $23 $23 −$0 (-1%)
Will Colombia reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? No 94¢ 94¢ $23 $22 −$0 (-1%)
Will Lionel Messi win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 93¢ 90¢ $22 $21 −$1 (-4%)
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 17°C on June 16? No 95¢ 100¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 16? No 92¢ 100¢ $19 $21 +$2 (+9%)
Will Haiti finish last in Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Yes 93¢ 93¢ $21 $20 −$0 (-0%)
Will Igor Thiago be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 99¢ 100¢ $18 $18 +$0 (+0%)
Will Venezuela become 51st state? No 97¢ 97¢ $18 $17 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 17? No 87¢ 95¢ $16 $17 +$1 (+8%)
Will Austria reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? No 98¢ 98¢ $17 $16 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on June 17? No 98¢ 100¢ $15 $16 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 16? No 97¢ 100¢ $12 $12 +$0 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on June 17? No 98¢ 100¢ $12 $12 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 17? No 97¢ 100¢ $12 $12 +$0 (+2%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 98¢ 98¢ $12 $12 +$0 (+0%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 98¢ 98¢ $12 $12 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 182 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 68-69°F on April 27 Jun 16 $8 −$48 -612%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C or higher on May 4? Jun 16 $41 −$41 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 42-43°F on February Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on March 30? Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 29°C on February 18? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on February 17? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 28°C on May 16? Jun 16 $11 −$18 -166%
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on February 22? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 78°F or higher on April Jun 16 $12 −$12 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 8°C on April 23? Jun 16 $1 −$2 -320%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 31°C or higher on Februar Jun 16 $1 $0 +65%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 44-45°F on Fe Jun 16 $7 −$6 -90%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 2°C or below on March 29? Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 16°C on February 21? Jun 16 $12 −$12 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 17°C on March 28? Jun 16 $1 $0 -45%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on April 23? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -84%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 29°C on March 3? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on February 2 Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 23°C or higher on Februa Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 8°C on February 27? Jun 16 $3 −$4 -139%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 27°C on March 22? Jun 16 $16 −$16 -101%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 36-37°F on Fe Jun 16 $39 −$39 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on April 9? Jun 16 $52 −$52 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from January 27 to February 3, 2026 Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 9°C on April 26? Jun 16 $0 +$1 +147%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on March 4? Jun 16 $1 −$166 -16562%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from February 3 to February 10, 202 Jun 16 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 21°C on April 12? Jun 16 $1 $0 -7%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 68-69°F on May 1? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -194%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 70-71°F on March 4? Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 16°C on March 28? Jun 16 $64 −$64 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 25°C or higher on May 24? Jun 16 $20 −$20 -99%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 42-43°F on Ma Jun 16 $1 +$2 +361%
Will Israel strike Gaza on February 10, 2026? Jun 16 $75 −$115 -154%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 18°C on May 7? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 68-69°F on February Jun 16 $0 $0 +19%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 50°F or higher on Feb Jun 16 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Israel strike Gaza on February 15, 2026? Jun 16 $1 $0 +27%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 8°C or higher on March 11? Jun 16 $11 −$11 -100%
Foreign intervention in Gaza by March 31? Jun 16 $8 −$10 -117%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from February 14 to February 16, 2026 Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Israel strike Gaza on February 12, 2026? Jun 16 $87 −$87 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 29°C on February 15? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from February 5 to February 7, 2026? Jun 16 $22 −$22 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 15°C or higher on February 2 Jun 16 $1 $0 +21%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 29°F or below on February 2 Jun 16 $28 −$28 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 32°C on May 8? Jun 16 $36 −$34 -97%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 32-33°F on Fe Jun 16 $4 −$2 -66%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 26°C on March 3? Jun 16 $1 +$1 +62%
Will Israel take military action in Gaza on March 25, 2026? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 17? BUY No 92¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 17? BUY No 92¢ $5 1h
Will Brazil advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 96¢ $11 1h
Will Cristiano Ronaldo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY No 96¢ $9 1h
Will Michael Olise be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $9 1h
Will Igor Thiago be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $18 1h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 98¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 29°C on June 17? BUY No 98¢ $12 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 18? BUY No 94¢ $8 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 81¢ $7 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $25 3h
World Cup: Winless Team? BUY Yes 99¢ $36 5h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on June 16? SELL No 99¢ $0 6h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on June 16? SELL No 31¢ $2 7h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on June 16? SELL No 99¢ $6 7h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on June 16? SELL No 99¢ $3 7h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on June 16? SELL No 99¢ $3 7h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on June 16? SELL No 74¢ $2 7h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 17? BUY No 93¢ $8 7h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 17°C on June 16? SELL No 97¢ $16 7h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 17°C on June 16? SELL No 97¢ $5 7h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on June 16? BUY No 96¢ $12 7h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on June 16? SELL No 99¢ $9 7h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on June 16? BUY No 61¢ $3 7h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 17? BUY No 97¢ $12 7h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on June 16? SELL No 61¢ $4 8h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 16? SELL No 96¢ $6 9h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $18 9h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 16? BUY No 93¢ $6 9h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $33 9h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $906.51 · official $906.51 (match) · 3500 history records