Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T03:22:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
88 0x8890…89bc crypto 158 markets active 8d ago coverage 709d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$226 (+1%) realized +$213 · open +$13
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -27% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate32%47W / 99L
Whale WR12%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$98per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$1,132now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$7
14 days−$7
30 days−$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 50% −$8
other 29% +$206
crypto 12% −$157
world 7% +$555
sports 3% −$337
culture 0% −$13
tech 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-33.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 2 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤90d 60 -19.1% -26.8% 38% 38% -4.5%
all 146 -26.8% -33.7% 32% 29% -8.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -33.7% 29% -8.1%
10% -40.1% 28% -16.9%
15% -45.9% 26% -24.9%
20% -51.2% 23% -32.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -27% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 12% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -34% → late -19% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$39 vs −$16 · ×2.41 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.14 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

709d coverage
Net worth$1,132
Realized+$213
Unrealized+$13
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses47 / 99
Whale WR (big bets)12%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions12
Markets (closed)146 / 158
History coverage709d
Avg bet$98
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 146 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 85¢ 82¢ $850 $825 −$25 (-3%)
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 15¢ 18¢ $150 $175 +$25 (+17%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No 74¢ 88¢ $50 $60 +$9 (+19%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 16¢ $13 $20 +$7 (+55%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 13¢ $24 $20 −$4 (-18%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $11 $10 −$1 (-8%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 22¢ $6 $8 +$2 (+33%)
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $8 $7 −$1 (-7%)
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $3 $2 −$0 (-6%)
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 15¢ 21¢ $2 $2 +$1 (+45%)
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-17%)
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 0¢ 1¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+30%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Türkiye (-3.5) Jun 20 $4 −$4 -100%
Spread: Türkiye (-4.5) Jun 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET May 22 $34 −$34 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET May 22 $34 −$34 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET May 22 $34 −$34 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET May 22 $34 −$34 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET May 22 $34 −$34 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET May 22 $34 −$34 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET May 22 $34 −$34 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET May 22 $34 −$34 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET May 22 $34 −$34 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET May 22 $34 −$34 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET May 22 $34 −$34 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET May 22 $34 +$36 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET May 22 $34 +$36 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET May 22 $34 +$36 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET May 22 $34 +$36 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET May 22 $34 +$36 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET May 22 $34 +$36 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET May 22 $34 +$36 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET May 22 $34 +$36 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET May 22 $34 +$36 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET May 22 $34 +$36 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET May 22 $32 +$33 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET May 22 $32 +$33 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET May 22 $32 +$33 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET May 22 $32 +$33 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET May 22 $32 +$33 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET May 22 $32 +$33 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET May 22 $32 +$33 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET May 22 $32 +$33 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET May 22 $32 +$33 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET May 22 $32 +$33 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET May 22 $32 +$33 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET May 22 $32 +$33 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET May 22 $32 −$32 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET May 22 $32 −$32 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET May 22 $32 −$32 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET May 22 $32 −$32 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET May 22 $32 −$32 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET May 22 $32 −$32 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET May 22 $32 −$32 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET May 22 $32 −$32 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET May 22 $32 −$32 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET May 22 $32 −$32 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET May 22 $32 −$32 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET May 22 $32 −$32 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET May 22 $32 −$32 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET May 22 $32 −$32 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET May 22 $32 −$32 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Türkiye (-3.5) BUY Türkiye 4¢ $4 7d
Spread: Türkiye (-4.5) BUY Türkiye 1¢ $3 7d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $13 10d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $11 20d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $6 20d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $8 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $34 35d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $27 35d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $34 35d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $34 35d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $34 35d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $34 35d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $34 35d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $34 35d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $34 35d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $34 35d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $7 35d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $34 35d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $34 35d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $34 35d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $34 35d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $28 35d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $6 35d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $3 35d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $13 35d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $3 35d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $7 35d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $2 35d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $1 35d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $5 35d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,131.95 · official $1,131.95 (match) · 757 history records