Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T03:42:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
88 0x888d…393c sports 13 markets active 2h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$51 (+7%) realized +$101 · open −$50
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate56%5W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$53per market
Trades / day16.5pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$90now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)+0.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +11.5% +0.9% 56% 56% -1.8%
≤30d 9 +11.5% +0.9% 56% 56% -1.8%
≤90d 9 +11.5% +0.9% 56% 56% -1.8%
all 9 +11.5% +0.9% 56% 56% -1.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +0.9% 56% -1.8%
10% -8.8% 56% -11.2%
15% -17.6% 56% -19.8%
20% -25.7% 56% -27.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 45% · top 2 71% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +11% · $-wt +8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$61 vs −$65 · ×0.94 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.18 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$90
Realized+$101
Unrealized−$50
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses5 / 4
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions4
Markets (closed)9 / 13
History coverage2d
Avg bet$53
Trades / day16.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 9 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 3.5 Under 61¢ 38¢ $50 $31 −$19 (-39%)
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? Yes 48¢ 72¢ $20 $30 +$10 (+51%)
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) Jordan 57¢ 82¢ $20 $29 +$9 (+45%)
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 Under 69¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $51 +$81 +158%
Spread: England (-2.5) Jun 27 $81 −$80 -98%
Panama vs. England: O/U 3.5 Jun 27 $122 −$120 -98%
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 3.5 Jun 27 $10 +$7 +70%
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $51 −$50 -98%
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $30 +$23 +76%
Spread: Senegal (-1.5) Jun 27 $91 +$59 +65%
Norway vs. France: O/U 3.5 Jun 27 $102 +$136 +134%
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $10 −$10 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 69¢ $20 1h
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 69¢ $30 1h
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 61¢ $51 1h
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) BUY Jordan 57¢ $20 2h
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 48¢ $20 2h
Spread: England (-2.5) BUY England 46¢ $61 11h
Panama vs. England: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 47¢ $20 11h
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 38¢ $51 11h
Spread: England (-2.5) BUY England 45¢ $20 11h
Panama vs. England: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 47¢ $102 11h
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 100¢ $17 22h
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 16¢ $51 22h
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 58¢ $10 24h
Spread: Senegal (-1.5) BUY Senegal 60¢ $10 34h
Norway vs. France: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 42¢ $10 34h
Norway vs. France: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 42¢ $10 34h
Spread: Senegal (-1.5) BUY Senegal 60¢ $10 34h
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 43¢ $10 34h
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 56¢ $10 34h
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 56¢ $10 34h
Norway vs. France: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 42¢ $10 36h
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 56¢ $10 36h
Spread: Senegal (-1.5) BUY Senegal 60¢ $71 36h
Norway vs. France: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 42¢ $71 36h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $89.93 · official $87.22 · 28 history records