Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T00:07:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

88 0x888c…8761 sports 24 markets active 2h ago coverage 572d

TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$113 (+8%) realized +$113 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip

Net edge-21%after slip

Net WR38%break-even

Win rate38%8W / 13L

Drawdown83%max

Avg bet$56per market

Trades / day0.0pace

Kalshi-fit92%portable

Net worth$880now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days$0

7 days$0

14 days$0

30 days$0

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +38%

net ROI/market (all)-20.6%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	no closed markets
≤30d	no closed markets
≤90d	no closed markets
all	21	-12.2%	-20.6%	38%	38%	+12.1%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.0 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-20.6%	38%	+12.1%
10%	-28.2%	38%	+1.3%
15%	-35.1%	38%	-8.5%
20%	-41.5%	38%	-17.4%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 51% · top 2 84% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI — too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -12% · $-wt +24% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -27% → late +1% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$38 vs −$15 · ×2.59 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×1.6 per $1 lost it wins $1.6

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

572d coverage

Net worth$880

Realized+$113

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)38%

Wins / losses8 / 13

Open positions3

Markets (closed)21 / 24

History coverage572d

Avg bet$56

Trades / day0.0

Drawdown83%

Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 3 History 21 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	No	99¢	99¢	$380	$380	−$0 (-0%)
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	No	100¢	99¢	$280	$280	−$0 (-0%)
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	No	99¢	99¢	$220	$220	−$0 (-0%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Kraken vs. Senators	Oct 16	$15	−$15	-100%
Lightning vs. Capitals	Oct 16	$7	+$7	+96%
Tigers vs. Guardians	Sep 23	$6	−$6	-100%
Buccaneers vs. Texans	Sep 15	$4	−$4	-100%
Rays vs. White Sox	Sep 15	$2	+$2	+117%
Braves vs. Marlins	Aug 28	$16	+$13	+82%
Falcons vs. Cowboys	Aug 26	$13	+$9	+72%
Pirates vs. Brewers	Aug 13	$14	−$14	-100%
Marlins vs. Guardians	Aug 13	$15	+$11	+72%
Braves vs. Reds	Aug 05	$7	+$5	+70%
Twins vs. Tigers	Aug 05	$4	−$4	-100%
Will Czechia win Eurovision 2025?	May 08	$5	$0	-1%
Will Real Madrid win the UEFA Champions League?	Apr 09	$5	$0	-0%
Will Mark Carney be the next Canadian Prime Minister?	Apr 07	$2	$0	-7%
Will the Nashville Predators win the 2025 Stanley Cup?	Mar 17	$1	−$1	-100%
Fulham wins the Premier League?	Feb 24	$3	−$3	-100%
76ers vs. Pistons	Feb 10	$103	+$154	+150%
Golden Knights vs. Devils	Feb 07	$107	−$107	-100%
Will Marcel Ciolacu win the 2024 Romanian Presidential election?	Feb 06	$1	−$1	-100%
Heat vs. 76ers	Feb 06	$109	+$101	+92%
Mavericks vs. Hawks	Nov 26	$35	−$35	-100%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	BUY No	99¢	$380	1h
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	BUY No	99¢	$220	1h
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	BUY No	100¢	$280	1h
Kraken vs. Senators	BUY Kraken	44¢	$15	247d
Lightning vs. Capitals	BUY Capitals	51¢	$7	249d
Tigers vs. Guardians	BUY Tigers	59¢	$6	270d
Buccaneers vs. Texans	BUY Texans	57¢	$4	278d
Rays vs. White Sox	BUY White Sox	46¢	$2	282d
Braves vs. Marlins	BUY Braves	55¢	$16	298d
Falcons vs. Cowboys	BUY Cowboys	58¢	$13	302d
Pirates vs. Brewers	BUY Pirates	35¢	$14	311d
Marlins vs. Guardians	BUY Guardians	58¢	$15	312d
Twins vs. Tigers	BUY Tigers	55¢	$4	319d
Braves vs. Reds	BUY Reds	59¢	$7	323d
Will Czechia win Eurovision 2025?	SELL No	97¢	$5	408d
Will Czechia win Eurovision 2025?	BUY No	98¢	$5	408d
Will Real Madrid win the UEFA Champions League?	SELL No	96¢	$5	437d
Will Real Madrid win the UEFA Champions League?	BUY No	96¢	$5	437d
Will Mark Carney be the next Canadian Prime Minister?	SELL No	27¢	$2	439d
Will Mark Carney be the next Canadian Prime Minister?	BUY No	29¢	$2	439d
Will the Nashville Predators win the 2025 Stanley Cup?	BUY Yes	0¢	$1	460d
Fulham wins the Premier League?	BUY Yes	0¢	$1	481d
76ers vs. Pistons	BUY Pistons	40¢	$103	498d
Golden Knights vs. Devils	BUY Devils	52¢	$107	499d
Will Marcel Ciolacu win the 2024 Romanian Presidential election?	BUY Yes	0¢	$1	499d
Fulham wins the Premier League?	BUY Yes	0¢	$2	500d
Heat vs. 76ers	BUY Heat	52¢	$109	500d
Mavericks vs. Hawks	BUY Hawks	55¢	$35	572d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $879.56 · official $879.56 (match) · 40 history records