Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T20:46:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
88 0x888c…19f9 sports 140 markets active 1h ago coverage 117d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,732 (-5%) realized −$1,904 · open +$172
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate39%53W / 83L
Whale WR79%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$275per market
Trades / day1.8pace
Fees−$180est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$604now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$411
14 days−$922
30 days−$1,528
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 72% +$43
sports 28% −$1,627
crypto 0% −$1
world 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-12.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +18.1% +6.9% 75% 75% +18.2%
≤30d 30 -4.8% -13.9% 50% 50% -27.2%
≤90d 107 +10.4% -0.1% 41% 34% -12.7%
all 136 -3.2% -12.4% 39% 33% -13.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.4% 33% -13.9%
10% -20.8% 30% -22.1%
15% -28.5% 27% -29.6%
20% -35.5% 21% -36.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 79% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -45% → late +39% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$163 vs −$125 · ×1.3 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

117d coverage
Net worth$604
Realized−$1,904
Unrealized+$172
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses53 / 83
Whale WR (big bets)79%
Est. fees paid−$180
Open positions4
Markets (closed)136 / 140
History coverage117d
Avg bet$275
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 136 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bosnia-Herzegovina leading at halftime? Yes 41¢ 100¢ $152 $371 +$219 (+144%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 5¢ $200 $122 −$78 (-39%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Yes 38¢ 79¢ $30 $62 +$32 (+107%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 81 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 20 $202 +$115 +57%
Spread: United States (-2.5) Jun 19 $203 +$199 +98%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $214 −$209 -98%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $203 +$148 +73%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $101 +$58 +57%
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) Jun 18 $201 +$65 +32%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $201 +$55 +27%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $203 −$200 -98%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $508 +$527 +104%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $407 +$649 +159%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $2,004 −$2,000 -100%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $201 −$200 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $203 +$232 +114%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $102 −$100 -98%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 12 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $204 −$201 -98%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $396 −$389 -98%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $102 +$142 +140%
Spread: China PR (-1.5) Jun 10 $201 +$65 +32%
Will China PR vs. Thailand end in a draw? Jun 10 $102 +$243 +238%
Will Thailand win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $51 −$50 -98%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jun 05 $304 +$241 +79%
Will Singapore win on 2026-06-05? Jun 05 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Singapore vs. China PR end in a draw? Jun 05 $204 −$200 -98%
Will Greece win on 2026-06-04? Jun 04 $203 −$200 -98%
Crystal Palace FC vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: Draw at halftime? May 30 $51 +$45 +90%
Will Crystal Palace win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa Conference League? May 30 $303 +$166 +55%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $508 −$308 -61%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $203 −$200 -99%
Spread: Málaga CF (-1.5) May 25 $89 +$68 +76%
Roland Garros WTA: Maja Chwalinska vs Qinwen Zheng May 25 $201 −$200 -99%
Will Juventus FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $302 −$300 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $2,440 +$169 +7%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $3,206 +$256 +8%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $103 +$118 +115%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-23? May 24 $506 +$201 +40%
Will Bayern Munich win DFB-Pokal? May 24 $2,510 +$357 +14%
Will Valencia CF win on 2026-05-23? May 24 $303 +$131 +43%
Will Valencia CF vs. FC Barcelona end in a draw? May 23 $262 −$258 -98%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $202 −$200 -99%
Will Real Sociedad de Fútbol win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $59 −$58 -99%
Will FC Bayern München vs. VfB Stuttgart end in a draw? May 23 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Aston Villa win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa League? May 21 $5,205 +$274 +5%
Will Club Nacional de Football win on 2026-05-20? May 20 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Zhejiang Zhiye FC win on 2026-05-20? May 20 $2,103 +$121 +6%
Will Zhejiang Zhiye FC vs. Shandong Taishan FC end in a draw? May 20 $81 −$80 -98%
Will Shandong Taishan FC win on 2026-05-20? May 20 $102 −$101 -99%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? May 20 $800 +$925 +116%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-18? May 18 $2,108 +$227 +11%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bosnia-Herzegovina leading at halftime? BUY Yes 39¢ $52 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 38¢ $31 1h
Bosnia-Herzegovina leading at halftime? BUY Yes 42¢ $103 1h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Côte dIvoire 63¢ $202 4d
Spread: United States (-2.5) BUY Australia 50¢ $203 5d
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 3¢ $21 5d
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $10 6d
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $204 6d
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 63¢ $101 6d
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) BUY South Africa 75¢ $201 6d
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 57¢ $203 6d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 78¢ $201 7d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 45¢ $203 8d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $21 10d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $31 10d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 7¢ $103 10d
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score BUY No 40¢ $204 10d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 50¢ $304 10d
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score BUY No 36¢ $204 10d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 46¢ $203 10d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 94¢ $1,002 11d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score BUY No 82¢ $201 11d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 94¢ $1,002 11d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $103 11d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 25¢ $102 11d
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $102 11d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 46¢ $203 11d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 44¢ $103 12d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 43¢ $102 12d
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score BUY No 22¢ $102 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $604.24 · official $601.95 (match) · 274 history records