Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T09:47:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
88 0x8888…d447 crypto 108 markets active 0h ago coverage 20d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$264 (-6%) realized −$264 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate29%31W / 77L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$38per market
Trades / day6.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$176
7 days−$176
14 days−$176
30 days−$515
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$515
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-14.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -7.2% -16.0% 38% 31% -28.8%
≤30d 108 -5.9% -14.9% 29% 28% -21.2%
≤90d 108 -5.9% -14.9% 29% 28% -21.2%
all 108 -5.9% -14.9% 29% 28% -21.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.9% 28% -21.2%
10% -23.0% 28% -28.8%
15% -30.4% 27% -35.7%
20% -37.3% 26% -42.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +18% → late -30% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$57 vs −$29 · ×1.92 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

20d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$264
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses31 / 77
Open positions0
Markets (closed)108 / 108
History coverage20d
Avg bet$38
Trades / day6.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 108 Trades
no open positions (62 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 27 $26 +$122 +460%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 27 $100 +$5 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 27 $103 +$69 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 27 $53 −$50 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 27 $104 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 27 $103 +$75 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 27 $99 −$99 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 27 $47 −$47 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 27 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 27 $47 −$46 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 27 $23 +$24 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 27 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 27 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 08 $75 −$70 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 08 $208 −$200 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 08 $103 +$64 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 08 $104 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 08 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 08 $103 +$95 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 08 $52 +$35 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 08 $105 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 08 $52 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 08 $52 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 08 $52 +$36 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 08 $52 +$38 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 08 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 08 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 08 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 08 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 08 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 08 $137 −$137 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 08 $52 +$38 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 08 $104 +$146 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 08 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 08 $51 +$29 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 07 $102 +$28 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 07 $103 +$93 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 07 $52 +$31 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 07 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 07 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 07 $52 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 07 $54 −$51 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 07 $31 −$30 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 07 $135 −$27 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 07 $103 +$79 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 07 $103 +$75 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 07 $42 −$40 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 07 $83 +$63 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 07 $65 −$62 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 07 $103 +$39 +38%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $148 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 17¢ $26 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $100 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 15¢ $26 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $26 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $103 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $104 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $103 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $99 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $47 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $47 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $23 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $52 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Down 17¢ $75 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $104 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $103 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $104 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $103 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $103 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET SELL Down 61¢ $87 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $52 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $103 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $52 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $52 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $52 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $52 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $52 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $52 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 174 history records