Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T06:14:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
88 0x8888…fa50 crypto 460 markets active 1h ago coverage 89d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$430 (-1%) realized −$430 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate93%430W / 30L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$129per market
Trades / day5.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$101now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$39
7 days+$20
14 days−$97
30 days+$89
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$706
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 43 +0.5% -9.1% 98% 7% -9.1%
≤30d 126 +0.7% -8.9% 97% 10% -8.9%
≤90d 460 -0.2% -9.7% 93% 13% -10.6%
all 460 -0.2% -9.7% 93% 13% -10.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 13% -10.6%
10% -18.4% 6% -19.2%
15% -26.3% 3% -27.0%
20% -33.5% 3% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
86% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$163 · ×0.06 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

89d coverage
Net worth$101
Realized−$430
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)93%
Wins / losses430 / 30
Open positions0
Markets (closed)460 / 460
History coverage89d
Avg bet$129
Trades / day5.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 460 Trades
no open positions (11 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 23 $100 +$1 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 23 $58 +$1 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 23 $99 +$1 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 22 $100 +$1 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 22 $100 +$1 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 22 $100 +$2 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 22 $101 +$21 +21%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 22 $100 +$1 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 22 $101 +$9 +9%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 22 $100 +$1 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 21 $100 +$1 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 20 $100 +$6 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 19 $100 +$1 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 19 $100 +$1 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 19 $100 +$1 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 19 $100 +$1 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 19 $100 +$3 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 19 $100 +$2 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 19 $100 +$1 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 19 $100 +$3 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 18 $100 −$100 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 18 $101 +$16 +16%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 18 $101 +$12 +12%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 18 $100 +$5 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 18 $100 +$4 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 18 $100 +$2 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 17 $100 +$1 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 17 $100 +$1 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 17 $100 +$1 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 17 $100 +$1 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 17 $53 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 17 $44 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 17 $100 +$1 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 17 $100 +$1 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 17 $100 +$1 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 17 $100 +$2 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 17 $100 +$1 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 17 $74 +$1 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 16 $100 +$4 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 16 $100 +$1 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 16 $100 +$1 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 16 $100 +$6 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 16 $100 +$1 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 16 $100 +$3 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 15 $100 +$2 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 15 $100 +$1 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 15 $100 +$4 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 15 $100 +$1 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 15 $100 +$5 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 14 $100 +$1 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $100 59m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $58 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $99 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $100 6h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $100 6h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $100 12h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $101 13h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $100 14h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $101 16h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $100 17h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $100 36h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $100 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $100 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $100 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $100 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $100 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $100 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $100 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $100 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $100 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $100 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $101 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $101 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $100 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $100 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $100 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $100 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $100 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $100 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $100 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $101.15 · official $101.15 (match) · 909 history records