Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T12:48:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
88 0x8888…8888 crypto 1550 markets active 1h ago coverage 105d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$210 (-4%) realized −$210 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate54%819W / 710L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day24.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days+$35
14 days+$34
30 days+$30
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$204
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-12.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 75 +23.0% +11.3% 69% 69% +4.3%
≤30d 495 -1.5% -10.9% 62% 51% -7.9%
≤90d 952 -1.9% -11.2% 51% 45% -9.4%
all 1529 -2.7% -12.0% 54% 47% -13.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover24.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.0% 47% -13.2%
10% ← realistic here -20.4% 42% -21.5%
15% -28.1% 32% -29.1%
20% -35.2% 27% -36.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 1% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.76 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

105d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$210
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses819 / 710
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1529 / 1550
History coverage105d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day24.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1529 Trades
no open positions (500 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$3 +218%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 14 $2 +$3 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 13 $2 +$3 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 13 $3 +$2 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 13 $4 +$1 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 13 $3 +$2 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 13 $4 +$1 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 13 $3 +$2 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 12 $3 +$2 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 12 $3 +$2 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 12 $2 +$3 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 12 $4 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 12 $4 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 11 $4 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 11 $3 +$2 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 11 $1 +$4 +252%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 11 $2 +$3 +173%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $4 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $4 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $3 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $3 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $4 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $2 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $2 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $3 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $3 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $3 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $4 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $4 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $3 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $4 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $1 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $4 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $3 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $3 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $3 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $4 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $4 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $4 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $2 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.50 · official $0.00 (match) · 3271 history records