Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T09:51:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
88 0x8885…1988 other 77 markets active 2h ago coverage 484d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$32 (-0%) realized −$35 · open +$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate43%33W / 43L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$155per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$92now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days−$16
14 days−$14
30 days−$33
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 77% −$34
other 20% −$6
politics 1% +$3
sports 1% +$12
crypto 0% +$1
culture 0% +$1
finance 0% $0
economics 0% −$1
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-9.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -1.3% -10.7% 33% 0% -11.0%
≤30d 23 -1.1% -10.5% 30% 0% -9.9%
≤90d 28 -1.3% -10.7% 36% 0% -9.8%
all 76 +0.6% -9.0% 43% 4% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.0% 4% -9.7%
10% -17.7% 4% -18.4%
15% -25.7% 4% -26.3%
20% -33.0% 3% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
91% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early +3% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$3 · ×0.33 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.55 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

484d coverage
Net worth$92
Realized−$35
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses33 / 43
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)76 / 77
History coverage484d
Avg bet$155
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 76 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US strike on Cuba by December 31? No 46¢ 48¢ $89 $92 +$3 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 18 $123 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $167 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 14 $522 −$2 -0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 14 $5 $0 +3%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 13 $4 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $135 −$14 -10%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 11 $135 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $3,836 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 10 $108 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 09 $1,013 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 09 $266 +$2 +1%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 09 $147 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 08 $58 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 06 $474 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 30 $283 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 28 $138 +$2 +1%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 28 $17 −$1 -3%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 27 $102 +$6 +6%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 24 $114 −$2 -2%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 24 $114 −$16 -14%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 23 $93 −$5 -6%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 23 $7 $0 +2%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? May 21 $155 −$2 -1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 17 $29 −$4 -13%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? May 15 $1,009 +$1 +0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? May 14 $71 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 12 $1,010 −$2 -0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 12 $1,099 +$2 +0%
Vince Williams Jr.: Assists O/U 3.5 Mar 16 $65 +$4 +7%
Will Trump sell 1k-2.5k Gold Cards in 2025? Dec 18 $7 $0 +2%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Dec 04 $1 −$1 -91%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? Oct 13 $7 $0 +1%
Will Elon tweet 120–134 times July 25–August 1? Aug 10 $6 +$2 +39%
Will the Washington Commanders win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 30 $12 $0 -0%
Will no leader be out in 2025? Jul 30 $6 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 25k-100k Gold Cards in 2025? Jul 29 $6 $0 +0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jul 28 $6 $0 +0%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 World Series? Jul 28 $4 $0 +3%
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.7% in 2025? Jul 28 $13 $0 +1%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Jul 28 $6 $0 +1%
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Jul 28 $7 $0 +0%
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jul 27 $14 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jul 27 $5 $0 +0%
Will Trump be impeached in 2025? Jul 27 $2 $0 +0%
Will Conor McGregor win the Irish Presidential Election? Jul 27 $6 $0 +0%
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jul 26 $7 $0 +0%
Will 'Wicked: For Good' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025 Jul 26 $7 $0 +0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2025 World Series? Jul 25 $6 $0 +0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Jul 25 $7 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? Jul 25 $7 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 46¢ $89 1h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $123 9h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $123 12h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 31¢ $43 32h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 32¢ $44 32h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 70¢ $125 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 69¢ $63 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 69¢ $19 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 69¢ $41 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 40¢ $109 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 40¢ $74 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 40¢ $35 3d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $5 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $4 4d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $4 4d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 4d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 4d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 4d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 57¢ $82 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 57¢ $40 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 57¢ $123 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 84¢ $28 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 84¢ $93 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $135 6d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? SELL Yes 62¢ $55 7d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? SELL Yes 62¢ $81 7d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? BUY Yes 62¢ $135 7d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $135 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $92.15 · official $92.15 (match) · 285 history records