Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T23:39:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
88 0x8884…2ed2 other 91 markets active 1h ago coverage 24d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$83 (+6%) realized +$92 · open −$9
Gross ROI / mkt +11% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate44%24W / 31L
Drawdown60%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day5.8pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit26%portable
Net worth$486now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$8
7 days−$40
14 days−$34
30 days+$69
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 74% −$91
sports 19% +$161
crypto 7% −$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)+0.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 -28.9% -35.7% 30% 30% -28.0%
≤30d 55 +10.7% +0.1% 44% 44% -1.2%
≤90d 55 +10.7% +0.1% 44% 44% -1.2%
all 55 +10.7% +0.1% 44% 44% -1.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +0.1% 44% -1.2%
10% -9.5% 42% -10.6%
15% -18.2% 42% -19.3%
20% -26.2% 36% -27.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +11% · $-wt +9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +51% → late -28% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$10 · ×1.57 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.21 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

24d coverage
Net worth$486
Realized+$92
Unrealized−$9
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses24 / 31
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions36
Markets (closed)55 / 91
History coverage24d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day5.8
Drawdown60%
Kalshi-fit26%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 36 History 55 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $20 $30 +$10 (+50%)
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 19¢ $10 $27 +$17 (+171%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $20 $24 +$4 (+20%)
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $25 $23 −$2 (-7%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $20 $22 +$3 (+13%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 18¢ $20 $22 +$2 (+8%)
Will Ousmane Dembélé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Yes 11¢ 12¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+5%)
Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-2%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-2%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $20 $19 −$1 (-3%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $20 $18 −$2 (-9%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $20 $17 −$3 (-13%)
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 28¢ $10 $17 +$7 (+68%)
Will Africa (CAF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $10 $16 +$6 (+64%)
Will South Korea win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 21¢ 34¢ $10 $16 +$6 (+64%)
Will Ivory Coast win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 20¢ $10 $16 +$6 (+58%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 13¢ $20 $16 −$4 (-22%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $20 $14 −$6 (-29%)
Will Egypt win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 19¢ 26¢ $10 $14 +$4 (+39%)
Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Yes 12¢ $10 $13 +$3 (+33%)
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 56¢ 62¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+10%)
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-4%)
Will Lautaro Martinez be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $10 $8 −$2 (-15%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on June 18? Yes 15¢ $15 $8 −$7 (-45%)
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 57¢ 46¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-18%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 22 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 1 Norway? Jun 16 $10 −$6 -55%
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 2 Egypt? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 2 Egypt? Jun 15 $6 −$5 -98%
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $10 +$8 +78%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Türkiye 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $7 −$7 -99%
Türkiye leading at halftime? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $15 −$15 -99%
Scotland leading at halftime? Jun 14 $10 +$9 +92%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $10 +$11 +109%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 1 Morocco? Jun 13 $7 −$5 -72%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 2 Switzerland? Jun 13 $14 −$1 -7%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 3 Switzerland? Jun 13 $10 −$8 -75%
Brazil leading at halftime? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $10 +$23 +226%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $7 −$7 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $15 −$15 -99%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 13? Jun 12 $16 +$8 +50%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $58,000 and $60,000 on June 14? Jun 11 $11 −$10 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 14? Jun 11 $11 −$10 -95%
Portugal vs. Nigeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 10 $15 +$14 +93%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 7? Jun 05 $16 +$6 +39%
Ousmane Dembele: Anytime Goalscorer May 30 $10 +$19 +188%
Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-1.5) May 30 $20 −$20 -98%
Khvicha Kvaratskhelia: Anytime Goalscorer May 30 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $20 −$20 -98%
Hurricanes vs. Canadiens May 27 $15 −$15 -98%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Gujarat Titans May 27 $30 −$16 -52%
Solstice FDV above $150M one day after launch? May 26 $57 +$7 +12%
Solstice FDV above $200M one day after launch? May 25 $16 −$1 -9%
Solstice FDV above $250M one day after launch? May 25 $11 −$2 -20%
Will AS Roma win on 2026-05-24? May 25 $15 +$6 +38%
Spread: AS Roma (-1.5) May 24 $15 +$17 +109%
Will Como 1907 win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $15 +$9 +57%
Spread: Como 1907 (-1.5) May 24 $10 +$17 +165%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Spread: Manchester City FC (-1.5) May 24 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Juventus FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $20 −$20 -99%
Will AC Milan win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $15 −$15 -99%
Liverpool FC vs. Brentford FC: Both Teams to Score May 24 $10 +$6 +60%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $10 +$23 +223%
Sunderland AFC vs. Chelsea FC: Both Teams to Score May 24 $10 +$9 +93%
Manchester City FC vs. Aston Villa FC: Both Teams to Score May 24 $10 +$10 +97%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $15 +$13 +82%
Spread: Manchester United FC (-1.5) May 24 $10 +$85 +829%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $15 −$8 -53%
Spread: Chelsea FC (-1.5) May 24 $10 −$10 -98%
Will AFC Bournemouth win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $10 −$10 -98%
Nottingham Forest FC vs. AFC Bournemouth: Both Teams to Score May 24 $10 −$1 -6%
Spread: Real Madrid CF (-1.5) May 23 $15 +$22 +145%
Spread: RCD Mallorca (-1.5) May 23 $20 +$30 +145%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 1 Norway? SELL Yes 10¢ $5 1h
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 1 Norway? BUY Yes 21¢ $10 1h
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 2 Egypt? BUY Yes $5 26h
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 2 Egypt? BUY Yes 14¢ $4 27h
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 2 Egypt? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 27h
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 68¢ $4 27h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 15¢ $16 42h
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 70¢ $14 2d
Australia vs. Türkiye: Türkiye 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 53¢ $7 2d
Türkiye leading at halftime? BUY Yes 41¢ $10 2d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $15 2d
Scotland leading at halftime? SELL Yes 94¢ $20 2d
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 1 Morocco? SELL Yes $2 2d
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 1 Morocco? BUY Yes 14¢ $7 3d
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 2 Switzerland? BUY Yes 17¢ $4 3d
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 3 Switzerland? SELL Yes $3 3d
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 2 Switzerland? SELL Yes 22¢ $13 3d
Scotland leading at halftime? BUY Yes 48¢ $10 3d
Brazil leading at halftime? BUY Yes 44¢ $10 3d
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $10 3d
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 3 Switzerland? BUY Yes 15¢ $10 3d
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 2 Switzerland? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 3d
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $10 4d
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 15¢ $7 4d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 51¢ $15 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 13? SELL Yes 47¢ $24 4d
Will Vitinha win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 5d
Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? BUY Yes $10 5d
Will Michael Olise win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 5d
Will Ousmane Dembélé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? BUY Yes 11¢ $21 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $486.47 · official $485.97 (match) · 170 history records