Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T17:36:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
88 0x8884…f29b sports 380 markets active 1h ago coverage 139d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$8,480 (-4%) realized −$9,352 · open +$872
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate57%215W / 162L
Whale WR68%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$550per market
Trades / day13.8pace
Fees−$1,646est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$2,538now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$907
7 days+$855
14 days+$838
30 days−$12,406
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 55% −$18,092
other 19% +$11,481
crypto 17% −$2,877
world 9% −$115
politics 0% −$304
culture 0% +$5
tech 0% −$4
economics 0% $0
finance 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-19.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -6.6% -15.5% 55% 55% +3.2%
≤30d 134 -10.1% -18.7% 57% 43% -30.5%
≤90d 317 -12.0% -20.4% 56% 39% -14.3%
all 377 -10.9% -19.4% 57% 38% -14.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.8 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -19.4% 38% -14.2%
10% ← realistic here -27.1% 23% -22.4%
15% -34.2% 14% -29.9%
20% -40.6% 8% -36.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
32% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 68% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -7% → late -15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$134 vs −$245 · ×0.55 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.73 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

139d coverage
Net worth$2,538
Realized−$9,352
Unrealized+$872
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses215 / 162
Whale WR (big bets)68%
Est. fees paid−$1,646
Open positions3
Markets (closed)377 / 380
History coverage139d
Avg bet$550
Trades / day13.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 377 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Yes 58¢ 94¢ $1,250 $2,022 +$772 (+62%)
Halle Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Frances Tiafoe Frances Tiafoe 70¢ 94¢ $316 $421 +$106 (+33%)
Will Málaga CF win on 2026-06-20? Yes 27¢ 26¢ $100 $94 −$6 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 24 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Anastasia Zakharova vs Lilli Tag Jun 20 $383 +$65 +17%
Nottingham 2: Otto Virtanen vs Christopher O'Connell Jun 20 $101 +$14 +14%
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Ugo Humbert Jun 20 $51 +$25 +49%
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz Jun 20 $3,329 +$563 +17%
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula Jun 20 $2,035 +$265 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 20 $21 +$6 +30%
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Felix Gill vs Marco Trungelliti Jun 20 $17 $0 -2%
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Francisco Cerundolo Jun 20 $50 −$23 -46%
Figueira Da Foz: Alina Charaeva vs Ayla Aksu Jun 20 $14 −$7 -52%
Parma: Chun-Hsin Tseng vs Oriol Roca Batalla Jun 17 $54 −$7 -14%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $45 −$45 -99%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 09 $7 −$7 -99%
Ilkley: Tristan Schoolkate vs Paul Jubb Jun 09 $8 $0 -5%
Libema Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Botic van de Zandschulp Jun 09 $7 $0 -4%
Libema Open: Emma Navarro vs Caty McNally Jun 09 $20 −$13 -65%
Bratislava: Alexander Shevchenko vs Filip Jianu Jun 09 $17 +$4 +21%
Cleveland Guardians vs. New York Yankees Jun 02 $191 −$189 -99%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Joao Fonseca Jun 02 $768 −$344 -45%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-02? Jun 02 $874 +$95 +11%
Perugia: Luca Nardi vs Oriol Roca Batalla Jun 02 $463 −$10 -2%
Prostejov: Viktor Durasovic vs Norbert Gombos Jun 02 $442 +$21 +5%
Heilbronn: Marvin Moeller vs Gauthier Onclin Jun 02 $394 +$27 +7%
Perugia: Roberto Carballes Baena vs Lorenzo Carboni Jun 02 $316 +$77 +24%
Roland Garros ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Alexander Zverev Jun 02 $1,328 −$551 -42%
Prostejov: Vitaliy Sachko vs Jan Kumstat Jun 02 $246 +$65 +26%
Makarska: Leolia Jeanjean vs Kajsa Rinaldo Persson Jun 02 $344 −$98 -28%
Prostejov: Genaro Alberto Olivieri vs Martin Krumich Jun 02 $280 +$64 +23%
Perugia: Pierluigi Basile vs Stefano Travaglia Jun 02 $233 +$47 +20%
Roland Garros WTA: Elina Svitolina vs Marta Kostyuk Jun 02 $657 +$38 +6%
Roland Garros WTA: Mirra Andreeva vs Sorana Cirstea Jun 02 $524 +$52 +10%
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Ana Giraldi Requena vs Dana Charintceva Jun 02 $10 −$6 -58%
Roland Garros WTA: Aryna Sabalenka vs Naomi Osaka Jun 01 $1,265 +$90 +7%
Roland Garros ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Matteo Arnaldi Jun 01 $586 +$32 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 01 $2 $0 +3%
Perugia: Pablo Llamas Ruiz vs Michele Ribecai Jun 01 $50 −$3 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 01 $10 +$3 +26%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-01? Jun 01 $101 +$17 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET May 31 $8 +$2 +20%
Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presid May 31 $274 −$266 -97%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers May 31 $164 +$55 +33%
Will Málaga CF win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $97 +$68 +70%
Roland Garros ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Pablo Carreno Busta May 31 $227 −$131 -58%
Atlanta Braves vs. Boston Red Sox May 28 $262 +$55 +21%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 28 $321 −$316 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET May 28 $28 −$21 -76%
Will Republic of Ireland win on 2026-05-28? May 28 $22 +$6 +26%
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Arnaldi vs Stefanos Tsitsipas May 28 $50 −$28 -56%
Roland Garros ATP: Raphael Collignon vs Ben Shelton May 28 $1,099 −$837 -76%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Detroit Tigers May 28 $172 −$96 -56%
Roland Garros WTA: Aryna Sabalenka vs Elsa Jacquemot May 28 $1,082 +$94 +9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Halle Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Frances Tiafoe BUY Frances Tiafoe 70¢ $318 1h
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Anastasia Zakharova vs Lilli Tag SELL Lilli Tagger 66¢ $318 1h
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Anastasia Zakharova vs Lilli Tag BUY Lilli Tagger 57¢ $281 1h
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Anastasia Zakharova vs Lilli Tag SELL Lilli Tagger 74¢ $129 1h
Nottingham 2: Otto Virtanen vs Christopher O'Connell SELL Christopher OConnell 66¢ $2 1h
Nottingham 2: Otto Virtanen vs Christopher O'Connell SELL Christopher OConnell 66¢ $114 1h
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Anastasia Zakharova vs Lilli Tag BUY Lilli Tagger 57¢ $101 1h
Nottingham 2: Otto Virtanen vs Christopher O'Connell BUY Christopher OConnell 57¢ $101 1h
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Ugo Humbert SELL Tommy Paul 95¢ $75 1h
Will Málaga CF win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 27¢ $102 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $1,013 1h
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz SELL Taylor Fritz 100¢ $1,259 1h
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz BUY Taylor Fritz 66¢ $707 1h
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz BUY Taylor Fritz 50¢ $102 1h
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz SELL Taylor Fritz 51¢ $375 1h
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz SELL Taylor Fritz 51¢ $3 1h
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz SELL Taylor Fritz 51¢ $15 1h
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz SELL Taylor Fritz 51¢ $98 1h
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz SELL Taylor Fritz 51¢ $20 1h
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz SELL Taylor Fritz 51¢ $1 1h
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz BUY Taylor Fritz 50¢ $508 1h
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz SELL Taylor Fritz 49¢ $778 1h
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz BUY Taylor Fritz 62¢ $1,011 2h
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Ugo Humbert BUY Tommy Paul 63¢ $51 2h
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz SELL Taylor Fritz 62¢ $0 2h
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz SELL Taylor Fritz 59¢ $314 2h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 57¢ $203 2h
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz BUY Taylor Fritz 53¢ $289 2h
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula SELL Jessica Pegula 100¢ $1,233 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET SELL Down 84¢ $27 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,537.89 · official $2,537.89 (match) · 2008 history records