Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T21:12:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
88 0x8880…ebbe crypto 61 markets active 2h ago coverage 695d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$126 (+2%) realized +$126 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate72%44W / 17L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$136per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$210
7 days+$210
14 days+$210
30 days+$210
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% +$18
politics 1% −$28
world 1% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-6.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 +17.4% +6.2% 67% 37% -2.4%
≤30d 27 +17.4% +6.2% 67% 37% -2.4%
≤90d 27 +17.4% +6.2% 67% 37% -2.4%
all 61 +3.9% -6.0% 72% 26% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.0% 26% -9.9%
10% -15.0% 13% -18.5%
15% -23.2% 11% -26.4%
20% -30.7% 10% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
61% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late +13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$40 · ×0.37 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.96 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

695d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$126
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)72%
Wins / losses44 / 17
Open positions0
Markets (closed)61 / 61
History coverage695d
Avg bet$136
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 61 Trades
no open positions (9 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 26 $10 +$4 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 26 $108 +$64 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 26 $124 −$20 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 26 $517 −$10 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 26 $315 +$24 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 26 $212 +$2 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 26 $102 +$8 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 26 $103 +$49 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 26 $424 +$18 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 26 $215 −$81 -38%
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 26 $101 +$20 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 26 $103 −$2 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 26 $21 −$20 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 26 $362 +$16 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 26 $11 +$22 +206%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 26 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 26 $113 +$80 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 26 $102 +$9 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 26 $31 +$30 +98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 26 $67 +$37 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 26 $76 −$7 -9%
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 26 $70 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 26 $102 −$100 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 26 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 26 $101 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 26 $304 +$65 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 26 $101 +$9 +9%
XRP Up or Down - March 15, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Mar 15 $131 −$131 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Mar 15 $129 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Mar 15 $114 +$16 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Mar 15 $105 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Mar 15 $109 +$5 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Mar 15 $103 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Mar 13 $101 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Mar 13 $100 +$1 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 25, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Mar 13 $248 −$248 -100%
Solana Up or Down - February 25, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Feb 25 $245 +$2 +1%
XRP Up or Down - February 25, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Feb 25 $242 +$4 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Feb 25 $239 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Feb 25 $216 +$23 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Feb 25 $212 +$4 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Feb 25 $210 +$2 +1%
Solana Up or Down - February 25, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Feb 25 $207 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Feb 25 $205 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Feb 24 $178 +$28 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Feb 24 $158 +$19 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Feb 24 $148 +$10 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Feb 24 $144 +$4 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Feb 24 $144 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Feb 24 $142 +$1 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET SELL Up 63¢ $112 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET SELL Down 95¢ $208 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $201 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET SELL Down 89¢ $215 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $203 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET SELL Down 69¢ $115 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $111 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET SELL Down 83¢ $116 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET SELL Down 73¢ $105 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $111 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $101 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET SELL Down 83¢ $103 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $111 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET SELL Up 82¢ $110 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $102 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET SELL Up 97¢ $151 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $103 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Down 18¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET SELL Up 65¢ $77 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $101 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET SELL Up 66¢ $135 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 165 history records