Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T14:11:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
88 0x887f…47f6 sports 34 markets active 0h ago coverage 8d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$81 (+3%) realized +$82 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate53%17W / 15L
Drawdown93%max
Avg bet$74per market
Trades / day28.0pace
Fees−$43est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$72now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$229
7 days−$29
14 days+$23
30 days+$23
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 72% +$74
other 28% −$51
finance 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-4.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 +6.7% -3.5% 55% 48% -10.6%
≤30d 32 +6.0% -4.1% 53% 47% -8.7%
≤90d 32 +6.0% -4.1% 53% 47% -8.7%
all 32 +6.0% -4.1% 53% 47% -8.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover28.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -4.1% 47% -8.7%
10% ← realistic here -13.3% 44% -17.4%
15% -21.7% 44% -25.4%
20% -29.3% 38% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 56% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +11% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$21 vs −$22 · ×0.94 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.07 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$72
Realized+$82
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses17 / 15
Est. fees paid−$43
Open positions2
Markets (closed)32 / 34
History coverage8d
Avg bet$74
Trades / day28.0
Drawdown93%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 32 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Los Angeles Angels 50¢ 50¢ $71 $71 −$1 (-1%)
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros Houston Astros 60¢ 60¢ $2 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics Jun 16 $2 +$1 +86%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros Jun 16 $12 −$8 -70%
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers Jun 16 $192 −$152 -79%
Nottingham Open: Harriet Dart vs Katie Boulter Jun 15 $1,091 −$54 -5%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $39 −$38 -98%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $40 +$1 +2%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $500 −$25 -5%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 14 $2 −$2 -92%
Netherlands to score first vs. Japan? Jun 14 $17 +$13 +76%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 14 $49 +$39 +79%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 14 $12 +$9 +79%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 14 $134 +$130 +97%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $13 +$6 +44%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 13 $9 +$8 +93%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 13 $86 +$65 +76%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 12 $4 −$4 -98%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $3 +$1 +46%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $15 −$14 -98%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 11 $10 $0 -3%
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 8.5 Jun 11 $4 +$4 +97%
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 11 $9 +$7 +86%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 11 $5 +$4 +76%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres Jun 10 $4 +$2 +64%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 10 $5 −$5 -99%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $125 in June? Jun 10 $2 $0 -0%
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $65 by end of June? Jun 10 $98 +$4 +4%
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $64 in June? Jun 10 $4 +$1 +17%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins Jun 10 $24 −$18 -77%
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 7.5 Jun 09 $51 +$53 +105%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $2 −$2 -98%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $91 on June 8? Jun 08 $2 $0 -7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros BUY Houston Astros 60¢ $2 24m
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Los Angeles Angels 50¢ $72 1h
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros SELL Houston Astros 17¢ $3 12h
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers SELL Texas Rangers 13¢ $39 12h
Nottingham Open: Harriet Dart vs Katie Boulter SELL Harriet Dart 49¢ $21 18h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 33¢ $39 18h
Nottingham Open: Harriet Dart vs Katie Boulter BUY Harriet Dart 50¢ $22 19h
Nottingham Open: Harriet Dart vs Katie Boulter SELL Harriet Dart 49¢ $46 19h
Nottingham Open: Harriet Dart vs Katie Boulter BUY Harriet Dart 50¢ $25 19h
Nottingham Open: Harriet Dart vs Katie Boulter SELL Harriet Dart 49¢ $47 19h
Nottingham Open: Harriet Dart vs Katie Boulter BUY Harriet Dart 50¢ $23 19h
Nottingham Open: Harriet Dart vs Katie Boulter BUY Harriet Dart 50¢ $25 19h
Nottingham Open: Harriet Dart vs Katie Boulter SELL Harriet Dart 49¢ $26 19h
Nottingham Open: Harriet Dart vs Katie Boulter BUY Harriet Dart 50¢ $25 19h
Nottingham Open: Harriet Dart vs Katie Boulter BUY Harriet Dart 50¢ $3 19h
Nottingham Open: Harriet Dart vs Katie Boulter SELL Harriet Dart 49¢ $47 19h
Nottingham Open: Harriet Dart vs Katie Boulter BUY Harriet Dart 50¢ $25 19h
Nottingham Open: Harriet Dart vs Katie Boulter BUY Harriet Dart 50¢ $25 19h
Nottingham Open: Harriet Dart vs Katie Boulter BUY Harriet Dart 50¢ $25 19h
Nottingham Open: Harriet Dart vs Katie Boulter SELL Harriet Dart 49¢ $47 19h
Nottingham Open: Harriet Dart vs Katie Boulter BUY Harriet Dart 50¢ $25 19h
Nottingham Open: Harriet Dart vs Katie Boulter SELL Harriet Dart 49¢ $47 19h
Nottingham Open: Harriet Dart vs Katie Boulter BUY Harriet Dart 50¢ $25 19h
Nottingham Open: Harriet Dart vs Katie Boulter BUY Harriet Dart 50¢ $25 19h
Nottingham Open: Harriet Dart vs Katie Boulter BUY Harriet Dart 50¢ $25 19h
Nottingham Open: Harriet Dart vs Katie Boulter SELL Harriet Dart 49¢ $64 19h
Nottingham Open: Harriet Dart vs Katie Boulter BUY Harriet Dart 50¢ $25 19h
Nottingham Open: Harriet Dart vs Katie Boulter BUY Harriet Dart 50¢ $25 19h
Nottingham Open: Harriet Dart vs Katie Boulter SELL Harriet Dart 49¢ $46 19h
Nottingham Open: Harriet Dart vs Katie Boulter BUY Harriet Dart 50¢ $25 19h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $72.04 · official $72.04 (match) · 231 history records