Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T00:06:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
88 0x887f…e69a sports 22 markets active 2h ago coverage 572d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$92 (+7%) realized +$92 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -35% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -41% what you keep after slip
Net edge-41%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate26%5W / 14L
Drawdown81%max
Avg bet$62per market
Trades / day0.0pace
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$900now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 66% −$2
sports 34% +$94
other 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-41.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d no closed markets
all 19 -35.2% -41.4% 26% 26% +8.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -41.4% 26% +8.2%
10% -47.0% 26% -2.2%
15% -52.1% 26% -11.6%
20% -56.8% 26% -20.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 52% · top 2 87% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI — too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -35% · $-wt +20% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -41% → late -30% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$57 vs −$14 · ×4.12 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.47 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

572d coverage
Net worth$900
Realized+$92
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses5 / 14
Open positions3
Markets (closed)19 / 22
History coverage572d
Avg bet$62
Trades / day0.0
Drawdown81%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 19 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 99¢ 99¢ $380 $380 −$0 (-0%)
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 99¢ 99¢ $300 $300 −$0 (-0%)
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 99¢ 99¢ $220 $220 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Flyers vs. Predators Nov 06 $26 −$26 -100%
Penguins vs. Ducks Oct 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Buccaneers vs. Texans Sep 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Rays vs. White Sox Sep 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Falcons vs. Cowboys Aug 26 $39 +$27 +70%
Marlins vs. Guardians Aug 13 $8 +$6 +72%
Twins vs. Tigers Aug 08 $5 +$3 +61%
Braves vs. Reds Jul 31 $6 −$6 -100%
Will George Simion win the Romanian presidential election? May 08 $2 $0 -4%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 09 $3 $0 -2%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 07 $3 $0 -3%
Will the San Jose Sharks win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 17 $1 −$1 -100%
West Ham United wins the Premier League? Feb 24 $1 −$1 -100%
76ers vs. Pistons Feb 10 $104 +$150 +144%
Golden Knights vs. Devils Feb 07 $107 −$107 -100%
Will Marcel Ciolacu win the 2024 Romanian Presidential election? Feb 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Heat vs. 76ers Feb 06 $109 +$101 +92%
Leicester City wins the Premier League? Feb 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Mavericks vs. Hawks Dec 18 $36 −$36 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $220 1h
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $380 1h
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $300 1h
Flyers vs. Predators BUY Predators 55¢ $26 226d
Penguins vs. Ducks BUY Penguins 44¢ $7 249d
Buccaneers vs. Texans BUY Texans 57¢ $6 278d
Rays vs. White Sox BUY Rays 55¢ $2 282d
Falcons vs. Cowboys BUY Cowboys 59¢ $39 302d
Marlins vs. Guardians BUY Guardians 58¢ $8 312d
Twins vs. Tigers BUY Tigers 62¢ $5 320d
Braves vs. Reds BUY Reds 61¢ $6 324d
Will George Simion win the Romanian presidential election? SELL No 27¢ $2 408d
Will George Simion win the Romanian presidential election? BUY No 28¢ $2 408d
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2025 NBA Finals? SELL No 67¢ $3 437d
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2025 NBA Finals? BUY No 68¢ $3 437d
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2025 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 28¢ $3 439d
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2025 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 29¢ $3 439d
Will the San Jose Sharks win the 2025 Stanley Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 460d
West Ham United wins the Premier League? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 481d
76ers vs. Pistons BUY Pistons 41¢ $104 498d
Golden Knights vs. Devils BUY Devils 52¢ $107 499d
Will Marcel Ciolacu win the 2024 Romanian Presidential election? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 499d
Leicester City wins the Premier League? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 500d
Heat vs. 76ers BUY Heat 52¢ $109 500d
Mavericks vs. Hawks BUY Hawks 55¢ $36 572d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $899.55 · official $899.55 (match) · 34 history records