Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T14:45:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
88 0x8879…d973 weather 103 markets active 3h ago coverage 10d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$89 (-7%) realized −$96 · open +$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate92%90W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day20.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$85now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$109
7 days−$98
14 days−$97
30 days−$97
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% −$90
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 92 -0.7% -10.2% 91% 21% -17.3%
≤30d 98 -0.6% -10.0% 92% 19% -16.8%
≤90d 98 -0.6% -10.0% 92% 19% -16.8%
all 98 -0.6% -10.0% 92% 19% -16.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover20.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.0% 19% -16.8%
10% ← realistic here -18.6% 0% -24.7%
15% -26.5% 0% -32.0%
20% -33.7% 0% -38.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
78% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$19 · ×0.03 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.37 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$85
Realized−$96
Unrealized+$7
Win rate (resolved)92%
Wins / losses90 / 8
Open positions5
Markets (closed)98 / 103
History coverage10d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day20.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 98 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 16? Yes 89¢ 100¢ $40 $45 +$5 (+12%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on June 16? Yes 86¢ 100¢ $9 $11 +$2 (+16%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 16? No 98¢ 99¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C on June 16? No 100¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 16? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 16? Jun 16 $10 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 35°C on June 15? Jun 15 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C or below on June 15? Jun 15 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 15? Jun 15 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on June 15? Jun 15 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 15? Jun 15 $10 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 15? Jun 15 $10 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C or higher on June 15? Jun 15 $10 −$2 -22%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 86-87°F on June 14? Jun 14 $20 +$3 +16%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on Ju Jun 14 $20 +$3 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 84-85°F on June 14? Jun 14 $45 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June Jun 14 $60 +$2 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C or higher on June 14 Jun 14 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 28°C on June 14? Jun 14 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ju Jun 14 $118 −$118 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 14? Jun 14 $58 +$6 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 25°C on June 14? Jun 14 $20 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June Jun 14 $20 +$4 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 13? Jun 14 $20 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on June 13? Jun 13 $10 +$1 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 13? Jun 13 $10 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 13? Jun 13 $4 $0 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 13? Jun 13 $30 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on June 13? Jun 13 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on June 13? Jun 13 $10 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 31°C or higher on June 13? Jun 13 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on June 13? Jun 13 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $10 +$1 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 21°C on June 12? Jun 13 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 96-97°F on June 12? Jun 13 $5 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on June 12? Jun 13 $15 −$5 -32%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 18°C on June 12? Jun 13 $5 $0 +8%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 17°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 26°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 $0 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 +$1 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 27°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 39°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 $0 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 12? Jun 12 $15 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 86-87°F on Ju Jun 12 $10 +$1 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on June 11? Jun 12 $10 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 98-99°F on June 11? Jun 12 $5 $0 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 16? BUY Yes 90¢ $10 2h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $10 4h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 16? BUY No 98¢ $10 4h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 16? BUY Yes 98¢ $10 5h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 16? BUY No 97¢ $10 6h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $10 7h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 16? BUY Yes 100¢ $9 7h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on June 16? BUY Yes 86¢ $9 7h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 16? BUY Yes 85¢ $7 7h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 16? BUY Yes 85¢ $3 7h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 16? BUY Yes 84¢ $10 8h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 35°C on June 15? SELL No 99¢ $0 29h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 35°C on June 15? SELL No 99¢ $8 29h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 35°C on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $2 29h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 35°C on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $0 29h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 35°C on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $8 29h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 15? BUY No 94¢ $10 30h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $10 31h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C or below on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $10 31h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 15? SELL Yes 96¢ $10 31h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $10 32h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C or higher on June 15? SELL No 74¢ $8 33h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 15? BUY Yes 94¢ $6 34h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C or higher on June 15? BUY No 93¢ $10 34h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 15? BUY Yes 94¢ $4 34h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 86-87°F on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $23 39h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on Ju SELL No 100¢ $23 41h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 84-85°F on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $46 41h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June SELL No 100¢ $62 41h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on Ju BUY No 88¢ $1 43h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $84.78 · official $84.78 (match) · 281 history records