Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T04:44:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

88
0x8877…1fa6
sports · 40 markets active 0h ago
6.0score
+$71 +4%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$72 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✓ COPY-WORTHY sports specialistFresh edge
Net worth$120
Realized+$72
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses21 / 15
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions3
Markets (closed)36 / 40
History coverage216d
Avg bet$47
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%
Chart Positions 3 History 36 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$239
7 days+$239
14 days+$239
30 days+$239
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Switzerland 58¢ 58¢ $40 $40 +$0 (+1%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Yes 57¢ 56¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-1%)
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Over 46¢ 46¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: Knicks (-4.5) Knicks 51¢ $44 $0 −$44 (-100%)
Crystal Palace vs. Brighton: O/U 2.5 Over 32¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
BV Borussia 09 Dortmund vs. Borussia Mönchengladbach: O/U 2.5 Over 66¢ $60 $0 −$60 (-100%)
Spread: FC Bayern München (-2.5) FC Bayern München 56¢ $56 $0 −$56 (-100%)
Will the Government shutdown end November 8-11? Yes $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Hawks vs. Clippers Clippers 62¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Spread: Spurs (-1.5) Spurs 55¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
BV Borussia 09 Dortmund vs. Borussia Mönchengladbach: O/U 3.5 Over 44¢ $45 $0 −$45 (-100%)
Nuggets vs. Timberwolves: O/U 235.5 Over 51¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Warriors vs. Trail Blazers Warriors 80¢ $51 $0 −$51 (-100%)
Lakers vs. Thunder: O/U 229.5 Over 58¢ $85 $0 −$85 (-100%)
Nuggets vs. Kings: 1H O/U 123.5 Over 57¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Valencia vs. Real Betis: O/U 2.5 Over 30¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $5 +$58 +1122%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $5 +$23 +442%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $41 +$58 +143%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $41 +$28 +70%
Spread: Korea Republic (-1.5) Jun 12 $5 −$4 -74%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $41 +$51 +126%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $58 +$25 +42%
BV Borussia 09 Dortmund vs. Borussia Mönchengladbach: O/U 2.5 Dec 19 $60 −$60 -100%
BV Borussia 09 Dortmund vs. Borussia Mönchengladbach: O/U 3.5 Dec 19 $45 −$45 -100%
Warriors vs. Trail Blazers Dec 15 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2025-12-14? Dec 14 $149 +$60 +40%
FC Bayern München vs. 1. FSV Mainz 05: O/U 2.5 Dec 14 $102 +$46 +46%
Spread: FC Bayern München (-2.5) Dec 14 $56 −$56 -100%
Crystal Palace FC vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 2.5 Dec 14 $84 +$73 +87%
Nuggets vs. Timberwolves: O/U 235.5 Nov 16 $50 −$50 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-1.5) Nov 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting? Nov 14 $5 −$1 -22%
Maduro out by November 30, 2025? Nov 14 $5 +$1 +22%
Lakers vs. Thunder: O/U 229.5 Nov 13 $85 −$85 -100%
Spread: Knicks (-4.5) Nov 12 $44 −$44 -100%
Nuggets vs. Kings Nov 12 $61 +$16 +26%
Nuggets vs. Kings: 1H O/U 123.5 Nov 12 $100 −$100 -100%
Warriors vs. Thunder Nov 12 $100 +$26 +26%
Will the Government shutdown end November 8-11? Nov 11 $11 +$15 +137%
Hawks vs. Clippers Nov 11 $50 −$50 -100%
Bucks vs. Mavericks Nov 11 $100 +$50 +50%
Lakers vs. Hornets Nov 11 $79 +$24 +30%
Timberwolves vs. Kings Nov 10 $20 +$10 +51%
Rockets vs. Bucks: O/U 231.5 Nov 10 $20 +$19 +96%
Valencia vs. Real Betis: O/U 2.5 Nov 09 $10 −$10 -100%
Spread: Manchester City (-0.5) Nov 09 $66 +$47 +72%
Will Manchester City win on 2025-11-09? Nov 09 $20 +$15 +76%
Rayo Vallecano vs. Real Madrid: O/U 2.5 Nov 09 $62 −$61 -98%
Crystal Palace vs. Brighton: O/U 2.5 Nov 09 $10 −$10 -100%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Nov 09 $80 +$36 +45%
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner Nov 09 $20 +$26 +133%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 85% −$43
other 14% +$101
politics 1% +$15
economics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 AND Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 AND Nethe BUY 18¢ $10 28m
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 100¢ $63 1h
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 100¢ $28 1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $41 2h
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 58¢ $41 2h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $41 2h
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 99¢ $99 2h
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 BUY Over $5 3h
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 18¢ $5 3h
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 100¢ $69 7h
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 58¢ $41 17h
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 40¢ $41 18h
Spread: Korea Republic (-1.5) SELL Korea Republic $1 24h
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 99¢ $92 25h
Spread: Korea Republic (-1.5) BUY Korea Republic 18¢ $5 25h
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 43¢ $41 28h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $83 29h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $20 35h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $8 35h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $30 40h
BV Borussia 09 Dortmund vs. Borussia Mönchengladbach: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 66¢ $60 175d
BV Borussia 09 Dortmund vs. Borussia Mönchengladbach: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 44¢ $45 175d
Warriors vs. Trail Blazers BUY Warriors 80¢ $51 180d
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2025-12-14? SELL Yes 87¢ $209 180d
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2025-12-14? BUY Yes 62¢ $149 180d
FC Bayern München vs. 1. FSV Mainz 05: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 99¢ $148 180d
FC Bayern München vs. 1. FSV Mainz 05: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 68¢ $102 180d
Spread: FC Bayern München (-2.5) BUY FC Bayern München 56¢ $53 180d
Spread: FC Bayern München (-2.5) BUY FC Bayern München 56¢ $3 180d
Crystal Palace FC vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 99¢ $156 180d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +58%
net ROI/market (all)+30.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +267.5% +232.5% 86% 86% +101.1%
≤30d 7 +267.5% +232.5% 86% 86% +101.1%
≤90d 7 +267.5% +232.5% 86% 86% +101.1%
all 36 +44.6% +30.8% 58% 58% -5.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +30.8% 58% -5.8%
10% +18.3% 56% -14.8%
15% +6.9% 47% -23.0%
20% -3.6% 33% -30.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $119.55 · official $129.56 · 78 history records