Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T15:46:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
88 0x8875…7548 sports 91 markets active 0h ago coverage 111d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$2,106 (+11%) realized +$2,106 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate64%58W / 33L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown48%max
Avg bet$216per market
Trades / day1.5pace
Fees−$152est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$155
7 days+$155
14 days+$272
30 days+$964
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 96% +$1,816
other 4% +$311
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)-7.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +51.3% +36.9% 100% 100% +32.8%
≤30d 30 +1.8% -7.9% 63% 63% +6.5%
≤90d 75 -5.6% -14.6% 59% 55% -0.8%
all 91 +2.4% -7.3% 64% 57% +1.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.3% 57% +1.5%
10% -16.2% 52% -8.2%
15% -24.3% 44% -17.1%
20% -31.7% 34% -25.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +4% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$115 vs −$137 · ×0.84 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.47 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

111d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$2,106
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses58 / 33
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$152
Open positions0
Markets (closed)91 / 91
History coverage111d
Avg bet$216
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown48%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 91 Trades
no open positions (11 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner Jun 20 $30 +$20 +67%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner Jun 20 $50 +$21 +41%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $252 +$114 +45%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 07 $637 +$112 +18%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $404 +$230 +57%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 07 $198 +$208 +105%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $101 −$100 -99%
Dota 2: Aurora vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 06 $203 −$200 -99%
Dota 2: Aurora vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 06 $234 −$210 -90%
Dota 2: Aurora vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 06 $142 +$77 +54%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Aurora - Game 1 Winner Jun 05 $101 −$101 -100%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Aurora (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 05 $301 +$55 +18%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Aurora - Game 2 Winner Jun 05 $152 +$80 +53%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Jun 05 $101 +$87 +86%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 05 $304 +$188 +62%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Yandex - Game 2 Winner Jun 05 $200 −$200 -100%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Yandex - Game 1 Winner Jun 04 $177 +$23 +13%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Jun 04 $2 −$2 -98%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Jun 04 $88 +$67 +76%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Yandex - Game 2 Winner Jun 04 $51 +$65 +128%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Yandex - Game 1 Winner Jun 04 $30 −$30 -99%
Dota 2: by Owl Club vs Ramzes Club (BO3) - Winline Star Series Group A Jun 01 $31 +$8 +27%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $781 +$620 +79%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs OG (BO3) - BLAST Slam Last Chance Qualifier May 30 $603 +$137 +23%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 29 $589 −$307 -52%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs PARIVISION (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 29 $196 +$273 +139%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Liquid (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 29 $203 −$200 -98%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Team Liquid (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 29 $195 −$195 -100%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Aurora (BO5) - DreamLeague Playoffs May 25 $527 +$327 +62%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Aurora (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs May 24 $207 −$204 -99%
Will Navi win IEM Atlanta 2026? May 18 $370 +$89 +24%
Will Spirit win PGL Astana 2026? May 17 $203 +$154 +76%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Spirit (BO3) - DreamLeague Group A May 16 $102 −$95 -93%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Spirit - Game 2 Winner May 16 $101 −$100 -99%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Spirit (BO3) - PGL Astana Playoffs May 16 $215 +$85 +40%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner May 15 $82 +$37 +46%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Xtreme Gaming - Game 2 Winner May 15 $192 +$95 +49%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Xtreme Gaming - Game 1 Winner May 14 $107 −$106 -99%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Spirit - Game 2 Winner May 14 $101 +$74 +74%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner May 12 $160 −$160 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Spirit (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage May 11 $346 +$297 +86%
Dota 2: 1win vs PlayTime - Game 2 Winner May 11 $101 −$100 -99%
Dota 2: 1win vs PlayTime - Game 1 Winner May 11 $101 +$31 +30%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Falcons (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Playoffs Apr 27 $66 −$66 -100%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Aurora - Game 3 Winner Apr 26 $155 +$114 +73%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Aurora - Game 2 Winner Apr 26 $93 +$62 +67%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Aurora - Game 1 Winner Apr 26 $50 +$43 +86%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Aurora (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Playoffs Apr 26 $461 −$461 -100%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Playoffs Apr 24 $1,008 +$766 +76%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Aurora - Game 2 Winner Apr 24 $315 −$315 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner SELL FURIA 100¢ $51 3m
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner BUY FURIA 59¢ $30 36m
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner SELL FURIA 100¢ $71 1h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner BUY FURIA 70¢ $50 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 49¢ $52 24h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 76¢ $199 26h
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - BLAST Slam Playoffs BUY Team Yandex 85¢ $637 12d
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner SELL Team Yandex 100¢ $634 13d
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY Team Yandex 63¢ $404 13d
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs SELL LGD Gaming 100¢ $407 13d
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs BUY LGD Gaming 48¢ $198 13d
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 64¢ $101 13d
Dota 2: Aurora vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs BUY Aurora 54¢ $203 13d
Dota 2: Aurora vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Aurora 33¢ $102 13d
Dota 2: Aurora vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner SELL Aurora 7¢ $20 13d
Dota 2: Aurora vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Aurora 45¢ $132 13d
Dota 2: Aurora vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner SELL Aurora 100¢ $219 13d
Dota 2: Aurora vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY Aurora 64¢ $142 14d
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Aurora (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs SELL Aurora 100¢ $357 14d
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Aurora (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs BUY Aurora 84¢ $301 14d
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Aurora - Game 2 Winner SELL Aurora 99¢ $232 14d
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Aurora - Game 2 Winner BUY Aurora 64¢ $152 14d
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Aurora - Game 1 Winner BUY Aurora 68¢ $101 15d
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner SELL LGD Gaming 100¢ $188 15d
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner BUY LGD Gaming 53¢ $101 15d
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs SELL BetBoom Team 100¢ $491 15d
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs BUY BetBoom Team 61¢ $304 15d
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Yandex - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Yandex 67¢ $200 15d
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Yandex - Game 1 Winner SELL Team Yandex 100¢ $200 15d
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Yandex - Game 1 Winner BUY Team Yandex 88¢ $177 16d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 211 history records