Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T23:05:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
88 0x8874…bf22 crypto 50 markets active 1h ago coverage 38d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$2,185 (+96%) realized +$2,077 · open +$108
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +51% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +36% what you keep after slip
Net edge+36%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate31%15W / 33L
Drawdown33%max
Avg bet$46per market
Trades / day2.9pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$161now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$33
7 days−$12
14 days−$46
30 days−$67
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 81% −$657
politics 11% −$24
other 3% +$87
world 2% +$2,860
sports 2% −$48
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)+36.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -34.9% -41.1% 33% 33% -25.5%
≤30d 16 +10.2% -0.3% 31% 25% -33.1%
≤90d 48 +50.6% +36.2% 31% 29% +9.4%
all 48 +50.6% +36.2% 31% 29% +9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +36.2% 29% +9.4%
10% +23.2% 27% -1.1%
15% +11.3% 23% -10.6%
20% +0.4% 19% -19.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 85% · top 2 90% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +113% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +51% · $-wt +113% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +119% → late -18% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$224 vs −$38 · ×5.94 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.7 per $1 lost it wins $2.7
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

38d coverage
Net worth$161
Realized+$2,077
Unrealized+$108
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses15 / 33
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)48 / 50
History coverage38d
Avg bet$46
Trades / day2.9
Drawdown33%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 48 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 1 Paraguay? Yes 31¢ 100¢ $50 $161 +$111 (+222%)
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-29? Yes 8¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 22 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 29 $21 +$33 +159%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 29 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 29 $2 +$1 +32%
Will Senegal vs. Iraq end in a draw? Jun 26 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? Jun 26 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 18 $23 −$23 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 17 $12 −$11 -94%
Solana Up or Down - June 2, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 02 $19 −$9 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 02 $1 +$9 +831%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 02 $28 −$27 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 02 $27 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 02 $30 −$2 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 02 $20 +$9 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 02 $40 −$1 -4%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET May 25 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET May 25 $428 −$428 -100%
Will Trump say "250" or "250th" during events in Rockland County? May 25 $14 −$14 -96%
Will Trump speak to Maria Corina Machado in May? May 25 $5 −$3 -64%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 24, 2026? May 25 $62 −$62 -100%
Will Trump speak to Masoud Pezeshkian in May? May 25 $5 +$1 +20%
Will Trump speak to Pope Leo XIV in May? May 25 $5 −$3 -59%
Will Trump speak to Yoon Suk Yeol in May? May 25 $5 −$4 -80%
Will Trump speak to Nicolás Maduro in May? May 25 $5 −$4 -70%
Will Trump speak to Kim Jong Un in May? May 25 $5 −$3 -59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET May 24 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET May 24 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET May 24 $402 −$402 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET May 24 $4 −$4 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET May 24 $303 −$1 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET May 24 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET May 24 $121 +$160 +132%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET May 24 $63 −$30 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET May 24 $53 −$50 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET May 24 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET May 24 $116 +$94 +81%
Will Trump speak to Emmanuel Macron in May? May 24 $136 +$68 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET May 23 $21 −$20 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET May 23 $37 −$35 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET May 23 $5 +$18 +346%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET May 23 $5 +$71 +1447%
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? May 23 $57 +$2,860 +5018%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET May 23 $36 −$36 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET May 23 $21 +$14 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET May 23 $6 −$1 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET May 23 $11 +$14 +130%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET May 23 $5 +$1 +23%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 31¢ $51 1h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 8¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $21 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET SELL Down 61¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $1 2h
Will Senegal vs. Iraq end in a draw? BUY Yes 4¢ $5 3d
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? BUY Yes 11¢ $21 3d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 6¢ $21 3d
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 48¢ $23 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Down 15¢ $12 12d
Solana Up or Down - June 2, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Down 22¢ $9 26d
Solana Up or Down - June 2, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET SELL Up 66¢ $9 26d
Solana Up or Down - June 2, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $10 26d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $10 26d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $1 26d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 23¢ $28 27d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET SELL Up 97¢ $28 27d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $27 27d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET SELL Down 89¢ $28 27d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $30 27d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET SELL Up 72¢ $29 27d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $20 27d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $21 27d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $19 27d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET SELL Down 63¢ $17 27d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $20 27d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 27d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $161.23 · official $161.23 (match) · 115 history records