Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T14:24:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
88 0x8873…dc18 crypto 44 markets active 1h ago coverage 519d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$772 (+6%) realized +$461 · open +$311
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate60%25W / 17L
Whale WR86%big bets
Drawdown39%max
Avg bet$301per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$1,166now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$130
7 days−$130
14 days−$130
30 days+$118
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 68% +$1,293
world 16% −$286
other 9% +$195
sports 3% +$18
tech 2% −$319
politics 2% +$55
culture 0% +$41
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-5.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -32.6% -39.0% 0% 0% -39.0%
≤30d 5 +11.5% +0.9% 60% 40% -0.9%
≤90d 7 -6.7% -15.6% 43% 29% -9.1%
all 42 +4.5% -5.4% 60% 31% -3.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.4% 31% -3.9%
10% -14.5% 26% -13.1%
15% -22.7% 19% -21.5%
20% -30.3% 14% -29.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 48% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
48% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 86% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +5% → late +4% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$64 vs −$83 · ×0.77 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.75 per $1 lost it wins $1.75
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

519d coverage
Net worth$1,166
Realized+$461
Unrealized+$311
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses25 / 17
Whale WR (big bets)86%
Open positions2
Markets (closed)42 / 44
History coverage519d
Avg bet$301
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown39%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 42 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum hit $1,000 or $3,000 first? $1,000 41¢ 55¢ $805 $1,063 +$258 (+32%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? Yes 14¢ 29¢ $50 $103 +$53 (+107%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? Jun 23 $398 −$130 -33%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? Jun 04 $106 −$30 -28%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in June? Jun 04 $206 +$16 +8%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in June? Jun 03 $330 +$91 +27%
Will Bitcoin hit $70k or $90k first? Jun 02 $207 +$171 +83%
Will Trump say "Taiwan" or "Tibet" during events with Xi Jinping? May 13 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Bitcoin hit $60k or $80k first? Apr 13 $1,777 −$84 -5%
Will Base launch a token by December 31, 2026? Mar 19 $47 +$3 +7%
Will Trump sign the Epstein Disclosure Bill on November 19? Mar 18 $150 $0 +0%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs BNK FEARX (BO5) - First Stand Group A Mar 16 $35 +$15 +43%
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? Feb 28 $300 −$283 -94%
US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026? Feb 28 $300 +$20 +7%
US strikes Iran by February 26, 2026? Feb 27 $196 +$3 +2%
Will Hyperliquid reach $40 in February? Feb 25 $750 +$108 +14%
US strikes Iran by February 20, 2026? Feb 21 $548 +$31 +6%
US strikes Iran by February 15, 2026? Feb 16 $497 +$2 +0%
US strikes Iran by February 14, 2026? Feb 15 $109 +$1 +1%
Will Bitcoin hit $70k or $90k first? Feb 06 $806 +$494 +61%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in February? Feb 02 $786 +$21 +3%
Will Bitcoin hit $80k or $100k first? Jan 31 $520 +$265 +51%
First to 5k: Gold or ETH? Jan 23 $611 +$147 +24%
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? Jan 15 $58 −$30 -52%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026? Jan 13 $22 −$5 -23%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? Jan 13 $22 −$4 -18%
Ethereum Up or Down on December 23? Dec 23 $24 +$3 +12%
Will A Minecraft Movie be the top grossing movie of 2025? Dec 20 $58 +$41 +70%
BNB all time high by December 31? Dec 13 $52 +$47 +90%
Will BNB hit $1500 by December 31? Dec 06 $57 +$20 +36%
Monad market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch? Nov 27 $7 −$4 -57%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,900 on November 23? Nov 24 $196 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $120 on November 22? Nov 23 $195 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,400 on November 9? Nov 11 $146 +$4 +3%
Will Trump visit China by March 31? Nov 09 $50 +$55 +111%
Will Top Esports win LoL Worlds 2025? Nov 02 $76 +$3 +4%
US x China tariff agreement by November 10? Oct 31 $51 +$14 +28%
LoL: KT Rolster vs CTBC Flying Oyster - Game 1 Winner Oct 29 $125 $0 +0%
LoL: Gen.G vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 2 Winner Oct 29 $128 $0 +0%
Will Trump strike a drug boat on October 25? Oct 28 $100 $0 +0%
Xi Jinping out in 2025? Oct 25 $223 +$6 +3%
Will Ethereum hit $3,750 by January 31, 2025? Oct 17 $210 +$13 +6%
Ethereum all time high by January 31? Jan 27 $210 $0 -0%
TikTok banned in the US before May 2025? Jan 27 $319 −$319 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? BUY Yes 14¢ $53 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? SELL Yes 8¢ $52 24h
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? BUY Yes 11¢ $82 29h
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? SELL Yes 10¢ $60 2d
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? BUY Yes 17¢ $106 2d
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? SELL Yes 13¢ $133 3d
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? BUY Yes 18¢ $212 4d
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? SELL Yes 16¢ $155 4d
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? BUY Yes 19¢ $211 4d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? SELL Yes 9¢ $52 5d
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? SELL Yes 22¢ $195 5d
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? SELL Yes 25¢ $4 5d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? SELL Yes 12¢ $11 5d
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? BUY Yes 34¢ $105 5d
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? BUY Yes 34¢ $4 5d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? BUY Yes 14¢ $106 5d
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? BUY Yes 15¢ $106 6d
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? SELL Yes 10¢ $84 8d
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? BUY Yes 11¢ $106 8d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? SELL Yes 27¢ $75 13d
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? SELL Yes 46¢ $76 13d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? BUY Yes 34¢ $105 14d
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? BUY Yes 58¢ $103 14d
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? SELL Yes 9¢ $77 20d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? SELL Yes 21¢ $79 20d
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in June? SELL Yes 67¢ $222 20d
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in June? BUY Yes 59¢ $206 20d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? BUY Yes 25¢ $105 20d
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? BUY Yes 11¢ $106 20d
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in June? SELL Yes 85¢ $421 21d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,166.02 · official $1,166.02 (match) · 179 history records