Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T23:01:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
88 0x8871…a59a crypto 228 markets active 2h ago coverage 140d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$3,280 (-25%) realized −$3,280 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate25%56W / 172L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$57per market
Trades / day4.2pace
Fees−$16est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$643now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$534
7 days+$534
14 days+$220
30 days+$163
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 85% −$3,766
sports 8% +$402
other 6% +$461
culture 1% −$140
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-21.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +488.2% +432.2% 100% 100% +432.2%
≤30d 48 +2.6% -7.1% 27% 25% -5.0%
≤90d 127 -1.0% -10.5% 29% 28% -25.7%
all 228 -13.6% -21.9% 25% 24% -33.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.9% 24% -33.4%
10% -29.3% 23% -39.8%
15% -36.2% 22% -45.6%
20% -42.4% 21% -50.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -25% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -26% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$94 vs −$48 · ×1.95 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.63 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

140d coverage
Net worth$643
Realized−$3,280
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses56 / 172
Est. fees paid−$16
Open positions0
Markets (closed)228 / 228
History coverage140d
Avg bet$57
Trades / day4.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 228 Trades
no open positions (166 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $112 +$534 +476%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9PM ET Jun 09 $198 −$190 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6PM ET Jun 08 $106 −$100 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12PM ET Jun 08 $97 +$207 +214%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4AM ET Jun 08 $66 −$62 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 07 $28 +$135 +487%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4PM ET Jun 07 $51 −$48 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1PM ET Jun 07 $72 −$69 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 10AM ET Jun 07 $7 −$7 -94%
Will Charles Leclerc win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 07 $99 −$96 -97%
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 07 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2AM ET Jun 07 $24 −$24 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1AM ET Jun 07 $42 −$40 -95%
Will Lando Norris win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 06 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Flavio Cobolli win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 05 $177 +$196 +111%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Joao Fonseca Jun 02 $201 −$198 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11AM ET Jun 02 $47 −$45 -95%
Roland Garros ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Alexander Zverev Jun 02 $51 −$50 -97%
Roland Garros ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Matteo Arnaldi Jun 01 $95 −$93 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Andrey Rublev May 31 $104 −$102 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 2PM ET May 31 $40 −$38 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET May 31 $1 −$1 -94%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 31 $139 −$137 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Jaime Faria vs Frances Tiafoe May 31 $103 +$356 +344%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET May 30 $22 −$21 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET May 30 $7 +$16 +212%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 1AM ET May 30 $74 −$70 -94%
Roland Garros ATP: Casper Ruud vs Tommy Paul May 30 $61 +$121 +197%
Roland Garros ATP: Joao Fonseca vs Novak Djokovic May 29 $98 +$362 +368%
Will Rafael Jodar win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 29 $90 +$9 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET May 29 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET May 23 $18 −$17 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 2PM ET May 23 $176 −$168 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 1PM ET May 23 $87 +$82 +94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET May 23 $25 −$24 -96%
Will Lando Norris win the Sprint at the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix? May 23 $98 −$71 -72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET May 23 $51 −$48 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET May 23 $47 −$45 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET May 23 $11 −$2 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET May 23 $10 −$9 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET May 23 $10 −$9 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 5AM ET May 23 $31 +$69 +225%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET May 22 $19 −$18 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET May 22 $4 +$15 +368%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET May 22 $289 −$272 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 9AM ET May 22 $141 −$133 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET May 22 $78 +$321 +410%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET May 20 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET May 20 $5 +$16 +298%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 17¢ $112 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Up 17¢ $1 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $198 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6PM ET BUY Up 12¢ $106 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12PM ET SELL Down 97¢ $304 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $89 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $8 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4AM ET BUY Up 18¢ $66 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 16¢ $28 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4PM ET BUY Down 18¢ $51 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $72 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 10AM ET BUY Down 3¢ $7 13d
Will Charles Leclerc win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? BUY Yes 6¢ $99 13d
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? BUY Yes 1¢ $3 13d
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2AM ET BUY Down 2¢ $0 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2AM ET BUY Down 2¢ $2 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2AM ET BUY Down 2¢ $0 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2AM ET BUY Down 2¢ $0 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2AM ET BUY Down 2¢ $3 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2AM ET BUY Down 2¢ $0 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2AM ET BUY Down 2¢ $0 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2AM ET BUY Down 2¢ $0 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2AM ET BUY Down 2¢ $0 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2AM ET BUY Down 2¢ $0 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2AM ET BUY Down 2¢ $2 13d
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 13d
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 13d
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 13d
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? BUY Yes 1¢ $5 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $643.41 · official $643.41 (match) · 613 history records