Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:23:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
88 0x8871…1a96 other 38 markets active 0h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$5 (+10%) realized +$5 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR18%break-even
Win rate24%8W / 26L
Drawdown63%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day13.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit24%portable
Net worth$4now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 69% −$8
sports 28% +$14
world 4% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)-4.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 34 +5.4% -4.7% 24% 18% +0.6%
≤30d 34 +5.4% -4.7% 24% 18% +0.6%
≤90d 34 +5.4% -4.7% 24% 18% +0.6%
all 34 +5.4% -4.7% 24% 18% +0.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.7% 18% +0.6%
10% -13.8% 18% -9.1%
15% -22.1% 15% -17.8%
20% -29.8% 15% -25.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 56% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +11% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +34% → late -24% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×4.28 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.32 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$4
Realized+$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses8 / 26
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions4
Markets (closed)34 / 38
History coverage6d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day13.7
Drawdown63%
Kalshi-fit24%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 34 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Yes 55¢ 56¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Yes 30¢ 30¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $2 $0 +8%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $4 −$1 -27%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 16 $2 −$1 -51%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $3 +$1 +28%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $2 −$1 -54%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $2 +$3 +168%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -72%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $2 +$4 +185%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 $0 -24%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-27? Jun 14 $1 $0 -8%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-27? Jun 14 $1 $0 -13%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-26? Jun 14 $1 $0 -5%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? Jun 14 $1 $0 -14%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? Jun 14 $1 $0 -14%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-24? Jun 14 $1 $0 -16%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 14 $1 $0 -16%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 14 $1 $0 -11%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 14 $1 $0 -6%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 14 $1 $0 -14%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 14 $1 $0 -32%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 $0 +4%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 +$3 +276%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $1 +$7 +650%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 13 $1 $0 -16%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 13 $1 $0 -10%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 $0 -7%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $1 +$1 +97%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 91¢ $1 11m
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 55¢ $1 1h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 1h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $1 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $1 1h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 13h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? SELL Yes 18¢ $2 20h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 20h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 20h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 99¢ $2 20h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 51¢ $1 21h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 26h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 26h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? SELL Yes 17¢ $1 33h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 65¢ $1 33h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 44h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $1 44h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 55¢ $1 44h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 44h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 34¢ $1 45h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 61¢ $1 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $1 2d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 8¢ $0 2d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $5 2d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 2d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 25¢ $1 2d
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 30¢ $1 2d
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 11¢ $1 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.92 · official $3.92 (match) · 95 history records