Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:35:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
88 0x886f…5e20 crypto 50 markets active 1h ago coverage 29d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$162 (-2%) realized −$132 · open −$30
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -35% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -43% what you keep after slip
Net edge-43%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate22%10W / 36L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$135per market
Trades / day4.0pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$554now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$212
7 days+$447
14 days+$313
30 days−$339
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 50% +$384
crypto 48% −$628
sports 2% −$107
politics 0% −$10
world 0% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-40.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -5.2% -14.2% 27% 27% +5.0%
≤30d 46 -34.6% -40.8% 22% 22% -14.5%
≤90d 46 -34.6% -40.8% 22% 22% -14.5%
all 46 -34.6% -40.8% 22% 22% -14.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -40.8% 22% -14.5%
10% -46.5% 22% -22.7%
15% -51.7% 22% -30.1%
20% -56.4% 20% -37.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 45% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -35% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -38% → late -32% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$318 vs −$98 · ×3.25 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

29d coverage
Net worth$554
Realized−$132
Unrealized−$30
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses10 / 36
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions4
Markets (closed)46 / 50
History coverage29d
Avg bet$135
Trades / day4.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 46 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Yes 54¢ 55¢ $350 $353 +$3 (+1%)
Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goals Yes 23¢ 22¢ $161 $150 −$10 (-7%)
Cristiano Ronaldo: 3+ goals Yes 8¢ 6¢ $65 $49 −$16 (-24%)
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Yes 10¢ 1¢ $8 $1 −$7 (-89%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Lamine Yamal: 2+ goals Jun 16 $7 −$7 -100%
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals Jun 16 $102 −$102 -100%
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 16 $87 −$87 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $77 −$77 -100%
Kevin De Bruyne: 1+ goals Jun 16 $153 −$153 -100%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 1 Morocco? Jun 16 $379 −$379 -100%
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals Jun 16 $508 +$546 +108%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $7 +$47 +656%
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals Jun 13 $497 +$876 +176%
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) Jun 13 $20 −$20 -100%
Breel Embolo: 2+ goals Jun 13 $256 −$256 -100%
Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 13 $28 −$28 -100%
Raúl Jiménez: 2+ goals Jun 13 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Max Verstappen get pole position at the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix Jun 13 $204 −$204 -100%
Breel Embolo: 1+ goals Jun 13 $411 +$343 +84%
Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-1.5) Jun 06 $23 −$23 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Valentin Royer vs Novak Djokovic Jun 06 $112 −$112 -100%
Will Trump be photographed every day this week? (5/18-5/24) May 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET May 27 $106 −$106 -100%
Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix? May 25 $17 −$17 -100%
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix? May 25 $6 +$3 +49%
Solana Up or Down - May 21, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET May 24 $17 −$17 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 21, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET May 24 $79 −$79 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 1PM ET May 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 20, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET May 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 20, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET May 20 $26 −$26 -100%
Will the price of Solana be between $70 and $80 on May 20? May 20 $11 −$11 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 20, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET May 20 $352 −$352 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 20, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET May 20 $105 −$105 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 20, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET May 20 $311 −$311 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 20, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET May 20 $104 −$104 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 20, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET May 20 $87 −$87 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 20, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET May 20 $206 +$163 +79%
Solana Up or Down - May 20, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET May 20 $57 −$57 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 20, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET May 20 $71 −$71 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 20, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET May 20 $333 −$52 -16%
Solana Up or Down - May 20, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET May 20 $246 +$379 +154%
Solana Up or Down - May 20, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET May 20 $173 −$173 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 20, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET May 20 $122 +$290 +237%
Solana Up or Down - May 20, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET May 20 $136 +$236 +173%
Solana Up or Down - May 20, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET May 20 $204 −$204 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 20, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET May 20 $102 −$51 -50%
Solana Up or Down - May 20, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET May 20 $188 +$298 +159%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET May 20 $53 −$53 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET May 20 $53 −$53 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET May 20 $64 −$64 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cristiano Ronaldo: 3+ goals BUY Yes 8¢ $67 1h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 54¢ $355 1h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goals BUY Yes 23¢ $165 1h
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals BUY Yes 47¢ $508 26h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 15¢ $77 43h
Kevin De Bruyne: 1+ goals BUY Yes 28¢ $153 47h
Lamine Yamal: 2+ goals BUY Yes 16¢ $4 2d
Lamine Yamal: 2+ goals BUY Yes 16¢ $2 2d
Lamine Yamal: 2+ goals BUY Yes 14¢ $1 2d
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals BUY Yes 32¢ $102 2d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $7 2d
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? BUY Yes 24¢ $87 3d
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 1 Morocco? BUY Yes 16¢ $379 3d
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals SELL Yes 99¢ $1,373 3d
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals BUY Yes 34¢ $293 3d
Breel Embolo: 2+ goals BUY Yes 43¢ $70 3d
Breel Embolo: 2+ goals BUY Yes 43¢ $38 3d
Breel Embolo: 2+ goals BUY Yes 48¢ $16 3d
Breel Embolo: 2+ goals BUY Yes 48¢ $17 3d
Breel Embolo: 2+ goals BUY Yes 45¢ $9 3d
Breel Embolo: 2+ goals BUY Yes 48¢ $5 3d
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals BUY Yes 37¢ $204 3d
Breel Embolo: 2+ goals BUY Yes 99¢ $100 3d
Breel Embolo: 1+ goals SELL Yes 99¢ $754 3d
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) BUY Switzerland 53¢ $20 3d
Breel Embolo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 53¢ $330 3d
Breel Embolo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 54¢ $81 3d
Raúl Jiménez: 2+ goals BUY Yes 12¢ $51 5d
Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? BUY Yes 27¢ $28 11d
Will Max Verstappen get pole position at the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix BUY Yes 30¢ $204 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $554.05 · official $554.05 (match) · 168 history records