Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T02:09:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
88 0x886f…aa8f sports 170 markets active 5h ago coverage 35d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,457 (-4%) realized −$884 · open −$573
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate48%80W / 86L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$198per market
Trades / day6.1pace
Fees−$527est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$296now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$221
7 days−$1,098
14 days−$4,335
30 days−$3,277
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 99% −$2,655
other 1% +$137
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-12.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 50 -8.7% -17.4% 48% 44% -26.0%
≤30d 160 -7.8% -16.6% 47% 46% -19.0%
≤90d 166 -3.6% -12.8% 48% 47% -14.9%
all 166 -3.6% -12.8% 48% 47% -14.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.8% 47% -14.9%
10% -21.1% 46% -23.1%
15% -28.7% 46% -30.5%
20% -35.7% 43% -37.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +12% → late -19% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$182 vs −$192 · ×0.95 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

35d coverage
Net worth$296
Realized−$884
Unrealized−$573
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses80 / 86
Est. fees paid−$527
Open positions4
Markets (closed)166 / 170
History coverage35d
Avg bet$198
Trades / day6.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 166 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5) Atlanta Braves 40¢ 20¢ $400 $205 −$195 (-49%)
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5) Atlanta Braves 40¢ 20¢ $100 $51 −$49 (-49%)
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 Over 65¢ 66¢ $32 $33 +$0 (+1%)
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Kansas City Royals St. Louis Cardinals 49¢ 1¢ $336 $7 −$329 (-98%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 42 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) Jun 18 $183 −$180 -98%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 18 $203 −$13 -6%
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) Jun 18 $254 +$301 +119%
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 18 $202 +$120 +59%
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) Jun 17 $204 −$8 -4%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 15 $530 −$500 -94%
Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5) Jun 14 $101 +$39 +38%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 14 $101 +$84 +83%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 14 $102 +$116 +114%
Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5) Jun 14 $105 +$55 +53%
Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5) Jun 14 $101 +$65 +65%
Spread: Kansas City Royals (-1.5) Jun 14 $202 −$200 -99%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Jun 14 $206 −$200 -97%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) Jun 14 $101 −$100 -99%
Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5) Jun 14 $106 −$100 -94%
PortlandFire vs. Minnesota Lynx Jun 14 $213 −$200 -94%
Washington Mystics vs. New York Liberty Jun 14 $51 −$50 -98%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 14 $101 −$100 -99%
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5) Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5) Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 14 $203 +$14 +7%
Indiana Fever vs. Connecticut Sun Jun 14 $102 +$5 +5%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 13 $54 +$46 +86%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals Jun 13 $101 +$87 +86%
Atlanta Dream vs. Toronto Tempo Jun 13 $204 −$200 -98%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Jun 13 $102 +$98 +97%
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5) Jun 13 $38 +$62 +165%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 13 $101 −$100 -99%
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5) Jun 13 $102 −$100 -98%
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) Jun 13 $41 −$40 -98%
Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5) Jun 13 $48 −$47 -98%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) Jun 13 $102 −$100 -98%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 13 $102 −$100 -98%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 13 $102 −$100 -98%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 13 $101 −$100 -99%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Jun 13 $101 +$48 +48%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Jun 13 $51 +$49 +97%
Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5) Jun 13 $102 +$116 +114%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals Jun 13 $101 +$74 +73%
Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5) Jun 13 $102 +$142 +140%
Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5) Jun 13 $102 +$161 +158%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 13 $56 +$44 +79%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 13 $57 +$43 +76%
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) Jun 13 $101 +$91 +90%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 13 $101 +$42 +42%
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 13 $101 +$84 +83%
Golden State Valkyries vs. Seattle Storm Jun 13 $51 −$50 -98%
Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5) Jun 12 $102 −$100 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) BUY New York Yankees 44¢ $183 5h
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Kansas City Royals BUY St. Louis Cardinals 49¢ $341 7h
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5) BUY Atlanta Braves 40¢ $407 10h
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox SELL Atlanta Braves 53¢ $190 10h
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Atlanta Braves 55¢ $203 22h
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees SELL New York Yankees 100¢ $322 22h
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) BUY New York Yankees 45¢ $254 28h
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) SELL New York Yankees 36¢ $196 28h
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees BUY New York Yankees 62¢ $202 28h
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Miami Marlins 35¢ $530 3d
Spread: Kansas City Royals (-1.5) BUY Houston Astros 65¢ $101 4d
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 63¢ $101 4d
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 53¢ $101 4d
Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5) BUY St. Louis Cardinals 38¢ $106 4d
Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5) BUY San Diego Padres 62¢ $105 4d
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 63¢ $105 4d
PortlandFire vs. Minnesota Lynx BUY PortlandFire 18¢ $213 4d
Washington Mystics vs. New York Liberty BUY Washington Mystics 16¢ $51 4d
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Boston Red Sox 52¢ $101 4d
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles BUY San Diego Padres 46¢ $102 4d
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5) BUY Atlanta Braves 38¢ $102 4d
Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5) BUY New York Yankees 72¢ $101 4d
Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5) BUY Miami Marlins 60¢ $101 4d
Spread: Kansas City Royals (-1.5) BUY Houston Astros 65¢ $101 4d
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5) BUY Chicago Cubs 34¢ $102 4d
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY New York Yankees 54¢ $101 4d
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets BUY Atlanta Braves 50¢ $102 4d
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Los Angeles Angels 49¢ $102 4d
Indiana Fever vs. Connecticut Sun SELL Connecticut Sun 22¢ $108 5d
Atlanta Dream vs. Toronto Tempo BUY Toronto Tempo 32¢ $204 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $295.70 · official $292.61 · 349 history records