Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:05:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
88 0x886d…0f69 sports 182 markets active 1h ago coverage 166d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$8 (-0%) realized −$8 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate8%14W / 167L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$32per market
Trades / day2.3pace
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$34now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 34% −$3
other 23% −$2
politics 18% −$1
culture 7% −$1
crypto 7% −$1
tech 5% −$1
world 4% $0
economics 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 -0.4% -9.9% 0% 0% -9.9%
≤90d 3 -0.9% -10.4% 0% 0% -10.4%
all 181 -0.6% -10.1% 8% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.1% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.7% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.5% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.7% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 54% · top 2 69% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.39 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.19 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

166d coverage
Net worth$34
Realized−$8
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)8%
Wins / losses14 / 167
Open positions1
Markets (closed)181 / 182
History coverage166d
Avg bet$32
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 181 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will McLaren be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? No 98¢ 98¢ $34 $34 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Igor Thiago be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $35 $0 -0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom May 31 $39 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2026? May 18 $34 −$1 -2%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 18 $119 $0 -0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Febru Feb 18 $110 $0 -0%
Will the US next strike Iran on March 20, 2026 (ET)? Feb 18 $9 $0 -0%
Will Hamnet win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Feb 18 $81 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Feb 18 $42 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Feb 18 $40 $0 -0%
Will Luka Doncic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Feb 18 $103 $0 -0%
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Feb 18 $107 $0 -0%
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Feb 18 $99 $0 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Feb 18 $12 $0 -0%
Will the US next strike Iran on February 20, 2026 (ET)? Feb 18 $85 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 18 $85 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 18 $154 $0 -0%
Will France win Eurovision 2026? Feb 18 $37 $0 -0%
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Feb 18 $83 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Feb 18 $76 $0 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? Feb 18 $41 $0 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Feb 18 $40 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? Feb 18 $79 $0 -0%
Will the DHS shutdown last 10 days or more? Feb 18 $34 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e Feb 18 $80 $0 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Feb 18 $106 $0 -0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? Feb 18 $80 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Feb 18 $36 $0 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Feb 18 $111 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in February? Feb 16 $40 $0 -0%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,800 by end of February? Feb 16 $38 $0 -0%
US strikes Iran by February 19, 2026? Feb 16 $35 $0 -0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Feb 16 $41 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 16 $78 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Feb 16 $81 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Feb 16 $38 $0 -0%
Will the Charlotte Hornets win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? Feb 16 $116 $0 -0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 16 $58 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 13 $52 $0 -0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 13 $79 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 12 $39 $0 -0%
Will Malta win Eurovision 2026? Feb 12 $38 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Kings win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Feb 12 $71 $0 -0%
Will Italy win the most medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics? Feb 12 $43 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? Feb 12 $92 $0 -0%
Will Marty Supreme win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Feb 12 $113 $0 -0%
Will Finland win the Men's Ice Hockey gold medal at the 2026 Winter Ol Feb 12 $28 $0 -0%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? Feb 12 $85 $0 -0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 12 $41 $0 -0%
Will the Montreal Canadiens win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Feb 12 $45 $0 -0%
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Feb 10 $82 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will McLaren be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $34 1h
Will Igor Thiago be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $35 7d
Will Igor Thiago be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $35 7d
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom SELL No 91¢ $39 19d
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom BUY No 91¢ $39 20d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $34 33d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $34 33d
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $37 122d
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $37 122d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Febru SELL Yes 98¢ $40 122d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Febru BUY Yes 98¢ $40 122d
Will the US next strike Iran on March 20, 2026 (ET)? SELL No 98¢ $9 122d
Will the US next strike Iran on March 20, 2026 (ET)? BUY No 98¢ $9 122d
Will Hamnet win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? SELL No 94¢ $40 122d
Will Hamnet win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? BUY No 94¢ $40 122d
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 96¢ $42 122d
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 96¢ $42 122d
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 95¢ $39 122d
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 95¢ $40 122d
Will Luka Doncic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? SELL No 95¢ $33 122d
Will Luka Doncic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? BUY No 95¢ $33 122d
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 90¢ $34 122d
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 90¢ $34 122d
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 94¢ $36 122d
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 94¢ $36 122d
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 97¢ $12 122d
Will the US next strike Iran on February 20, 2026 (ET)? SELL No 97¢ $29 122d
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 97¢ $12 122d
Will the US next strike Iran on February 20, 2026 (ET)? SELL No 98¢ $12 122d
Will the US next strike Iran on February 20, 2026 (ET)? BUY No 98¢ $41 122d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $34.15 · official $34.15 (match) · 539 history records