Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T07:44:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
88 0x886d…a8f2 politics 158 markets active 1h ago coverage 139d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$2,284 (+1%) realized +$2,284 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate23%36W / 122L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown12%max
Avg bet$1,579per market
Trades / day3.1pace
Fees−$32est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$14
7 days−$34
14 days−$116
30 days−$210
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 43% −$139
other 34% +$69
sports 13% +$2,302
world 3% −$7
culture 3% −$12
economics 2% −$5
tech 1% −$4
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -0.1% -9.6% 9% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 44 -3.3% -12.6% 9% 5% -9.8%
≤90d 99 -8.2% -17.0% 7% 4% -8.8%
all 158 -0.2% -9.7% 23% 11% -8.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 11% -8.7%
10% -18.3% 10% -17.5%
15% -26.2% 9% -25.4%
20% -33.5% 6% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 56% · top 2 72% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
53% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,997) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +0% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$87 vs −$8 · ×11.19 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.38 per $1 lost it wins $3.38
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

139d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$2,284
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)23%
Wins / losses36 / 122
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$32
Open positions0
Markets (closed)158 / 158
History coverage139d
Avg bet$1,579
Trades / day3.1
Drawdown12%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 158 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 18 $749 −$1 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 18 $5,412 −$6 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 17 $214 +$1 +0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 16 $4,893 −$7 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 16 $715 −$1 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 15 $3,860 −$4 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 15 $3,092 −$5 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 15 $1,566 −$2 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 14 $2,423 −$3 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 13 $1,667 −$3 -0%
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 11 $1,791 −$3 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 11 $893 −$1 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $3,805 −$4 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $5,157 −$5 -0%
Will Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu be the top grossing movie of Jun 08 $1,137 −$2 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 08 $1,135 −$2 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 07 $6,337 −$7 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 06 $2,643 −$3 -0%
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) Jun 06 $58 −$58 -100%
Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 04 $45 +$58 +129%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 03 $3,738 −$5 -0%
San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 03 $57 −$57 -100%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $3,574 −$4 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 02 $719 −$1 -0%
Will XRP dip to $0.80 in May? Jun 02 $398 $0 +0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 01 $447 −$1 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 01 $1,664 −$3 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 01 $1,598 −$2 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 28 $5,403 −$8 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? May 27 $2,111 −$3 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 26 $2,870 −$4 -0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? May 26 $917 −$1 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 25 $1,119 −$2 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 25 $2,115 −$3 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 24 $1,088 −$2 -0%
Will Beijing Guoan FC win on 2026-05-23? May 24 $59 +$76 +129%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 23 $1,997 −$2 -0%
Golden Knights vs. Avalanche May 23 $58 −$58 -100%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 23 $2,401 −$4 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? May 22 $1,168 −$2 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 22 $1,040 −$1 -0%
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 22 $1,231 −$2 -0%
Canadiens vs. Hurricanes May 22 $63 −$63 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $115,000 in May? May 19 $530 −$1 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 18 $1,026 −$2 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 17 $3,916 −$5 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 17 $8,486 −$10 -0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 17 $1,085 −$2 -0%
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? May 16 $1,255 −$2 -0%
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movi May 16 $1,065 −$2 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $748 1h
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $749 2h
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $653 2h
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $653 5h
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $704 43h
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $705 46h
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $714 46h
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $715 2d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $806 2d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $807 2d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $890 3d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $891 3d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $819 3d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $820 3d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $863 3d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $864 4d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $849 4d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $850 4d
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $803 6d
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $804 7d
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $892 7d
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $893 7d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $889 7d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $890 7d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $816 8d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $817 8d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,014 8d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 100¢ $214 9d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,016 9d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $1,019 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 549 history records