Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T08:46:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
88 0x886d…3615 sports 142 markets active 1h ago coverage 158d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$12 (-0%) realized −$12 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate14%20W / 122L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$35per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$2
14 days−$2
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 27% −$3
politics 25% −$2
other 18% −$6
economics 8% −$1
crypto 8% −$1
culture 7% $0
tech 5% −$1
world 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -4.7% -13.8% 0% 0% -13.8%
≤30d 3 -2.0% -11.3% 0% 0% -11.3%
≤90d 4 -1.5% -10.9% 0% 0% -11.0%
all 142 -0.8% -10.3% 14% 0% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.3% 0% -9.8%
10% -18.8% 0% -18.4%
15% -26.7% 0% -26.3%
20% -33.9% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 53% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.42 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.11 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

158d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$12
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)14%
Wins / losses20 / 122
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)142 / 142
History coverage158d
Avg bet$35
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 142 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Florida Panthers be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champio Jun 19 $36 −$2 -5%
Will Natus Vincere win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 11 $38 $0 -1%
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 29 $35 $0 -0%
Will Chad Bianco win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 15 $28 $0 -0%
Will Marty Supreme win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Feb 18 $114 $0 -0%
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Feb 18 $39 $0 -0%
Will the US next strike Iran on February 21, 2026 (ET)? Feb 18 $40 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in February? Feb 18 $112 $0 -0%
Will the US next strike Iran on February 28, 2026 (ET)? Feb 18 $24 $0 +0%
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Feb 18 $73 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 18 $38 $0 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? Feb 18 $36 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 18 $34 $0 -0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? Feb 18 $39 $0 -0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Febru Feb 18 $35 $0 -0%
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? Feb 18 $107 $0 -0%
US strikes Iran by February 19, 2026? Feb 18 $33 $0 -0%
Will France win Eurovision 2026? Feb 15 $39 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e Feb 15 $124 $0 -0%
Will Denmark win Eurovision 2026? Feb 15 $35 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? Feb 15 $51 $0 -0%
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? Feb 15 $40 $0 -0%
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? Feb 15 $36 $0 -0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 15 $103 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Feb 15 $72 $0 -0%
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? Feb 15 $79 $0 -0%
Will Inter win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 15 $55 $0 -0%
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Feb 15 $61 $0 -0%
Will the Montreal Canadiens win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Feb 15 $33 $0 -0%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? Feb 15 $134 $0 -0%
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Feb 15 $36 $0 -0%
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Feb 15 $164 $0 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Feb 15 $77 $0 -0%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? Feb 13 $116 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? Feb 13 $79 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Feb 13 $39 $0 -0%
Will the Phoenix Suns win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Feb 13 $39 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? Feb 13 $42 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 13 $48 $0 -0%
Will Finland win the Men's Ice Hockey gold medal at the 2026 Winter Ol Feb 13 $78 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 13 $132 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Feb 13 $78 $0 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Feb 13 $82 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 13 $125 $0 -0%
Will the Dallas Stars win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Feb 13 $36 $0 -0%
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? Feb 13 $54 $0 -0%
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 13 $137 $0 -0%
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 10 $38 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? Feb 07 $44 $0 -0%
Will Luka Doncic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Feb 07 $91 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Florida Panthers be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champio SELL No 90¢ $34 1h
Will the Florida Panthers be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champio BUY No 94¢ $36 7h
Will Natus Vincere win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL No 92¢ $37 7d
Will Natus Vincere win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY No 92¢ $38 7d
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 91¢ $34 20d
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 91¢ $35 20d
Will Chad Bianco win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 97¢ $28 34d
Will Chad Bianco win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 97¢ $28 34d
Will Marty Supreme win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? SELL No 97¢ $39 121d
Will Marty Supreme win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? BUY No 97¢ $39 121d
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? SELL No 98¢ $39 121d
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? BUY No 98¢ $39 121d
Will the US next strike Iran on February 21, 2026 (ET)? SELL No 97¢ $39 121d
Will the US next strike Iran on February 21, 2026 (ET)? BUY No 97¢ $40 121d
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in February? SELL No 97¢ $38 121d
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in February? BUY No 97¢ $38 121d
Will the US next strike Iran on February 28, 2026 (ET)? SELL No 97¢ $24 121d
Will the US next strike Iran on February 28, 2026 (ET)? BUY No 97¢ $24 121d
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 94¢ $34 121d
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 94¢ $34 121d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $38 121d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $38 121d
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 96¢ $35 121d
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 96¢ $36 121d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 94¢ $34 121d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 94¢ $34 121d
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 94¢ $39 121d
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 94¢ $39 121d
Will Marty Supreme win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? SELL No 97¢ $38 121d
Will Marty Supreme win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? BUY No 97¢ $38 121d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 500 history records