Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:10:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
88 0x886a…0944 crypto 941 markets active 1h ago coverage 47d ⚠
BOTnot copyable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 47d only
✗ bot/MM pace (70 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$1,023 (-1%) realized −$1,021 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate73%683W / 251L
Whale WR91%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$79per market
Trades / day70.3pace
Fees−$44est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$930now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$229
7 days−$150
14 days−$264
30 days−$483
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 39% −$295
other 27% −$428
weather 16% −$15
sports 11% −$190
tech 2% −$160
world 2% +$19
finance 2% +$20
culture 1% +$2
politics 0% +$4
economics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (70 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-17.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 167 +0.6% -9.0% 95% 0% -9.8%
≤30d 577 -8.7% -17.4% 79% 4% -10.2%
≤90d 934 -8.4% -17.1% 73% 6% -10.8%
all 934 -8.4% -17.1% 73% 6% -10.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover70.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -17.1% 6% -10.8%
10% ← realistic here -25.1% 3% -19.4%
15% -32.3% 3% -27.1%
20% -38.9% 2% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
90% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 91% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -14% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$12 · ×0.23 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.64 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

47d coverage
Net worth$930
Realized−$1,021
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)73%
Wins / losses683 / 251
Whale WR (big bets)91%
Est. fees paid−$44
Open positions7
Markets (closed)934 / 941
History coverage47d ⚠
Avg bet$79
Trades / day70.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 934 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: England 3 - 2 Croatia? No 97¢ 97¢ $499 $499 −$1 (-0%)
Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting? No 98¢ 97¢ $241 $240 −$1 (-0%)
Exact Score: England 0 - 2 Croatia? No 97¢ 97¢ $135 $135 +$0 (+0%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 17? No 97¢ 98¢ $45 $45 +$0 (+1%)
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $740 on June 17? Yes 98¢ 90¢ $12 $11 −$1 (-8%)
Will Robert Charles win the 2026 Maine Governor Republican primary election? Yes 95¢ 96¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+2%)
Exact Score: Portugal 0 - 1 DR Congo? No 97¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 2 DR Congo? Jun 17 $501 +$9 +2%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $504 +$4 +1%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Ju Jun 17 $498 +$10 +2%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Flame Team (BO3) - European Pro League Group Jun 17 $243 +$15 +6%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on June 17? Jun 17 $117 +$2 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Jun 17 $488 +$7 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Jun 17 $170 +$3 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9AM ET Jun 17 $498 +$14 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 29°C on June 17? Jun 17 $20 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 17? Jun 17 $118 +$5 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on June 17? Jun 17 $93 +$3 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 17? Jun 17 $224 +$4 +2%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C or below on June 17? Jun 17 $39 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on June 17? Jun 17 $16 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 17? Jun 17 $501 +$8 +2%
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 2 Jordan? Jun 17 $71 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Jun 17 $100 +$6 +6%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,750 on June 16? Jun 17 $10 $0 +1%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 2 Algeria? Jun 17 $502 +$8 +2%
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 2 Algeria? Jun 17 $498 +$10 +2%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 2 Algeria? Jun 17 $500 +$7 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 17 $190 +$7 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8PM ET Jun 17 $491 +$5 +1%
Exact Score: Iraq 2 - 3 Norway? Jun 16 $501 +$7 +2%
Exact Score: Iraq 2 - 2 Norway? Jun 16 $501 +$9 +2%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 0 Norway? Jun 16 $263 +$5 +2%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $524 +$4 +1%
Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on June 16? Jun 16 $491 +$19 +4%
Dow Jones (DJIA) Up or Down on June 16? Jun 16 $500 +$10 +2%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 16? Jun 16 $11 $0 +2%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $501 −$66 -13%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.20 and $1.30 on June 16? Jun 16 $495 +$4 +1%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.20 on June 16? Jun 16 $499 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $499 +$11 +2%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 8AM ET Jun 16 $56 +$2 +4%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 16? Jun 16 $13 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on June 16? Jun 16 $93 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 16? Jun 16 $503 +$8 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 16? Jun 16 $300 +$4 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 20°C on June 16? Jun 16 $24 +$1 +3%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 16 $482 +$26 +5%
Will MrBeast's next video get less than 45 million views on day 3? Jun 16 $29 $0 +1%
Exact Score: IR Iran 0 - 2 New Zealand? Jun 16 $501 +$8 +2%
Will Ethereum reach $1,850 on June 15? Jun 16 $7 $0 +2%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 2 - 2 Uruguay? Jun 15 $500 +$8 +2%
Ronald Araújo: 1+ goals Jun 15 $490 +$20 +4%
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 2 Egypt? Jun 15 $501 +$7 +2%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $80 on June 15? Jun 15 $9 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 15 $502 +$9 +2%
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 1 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $500 +$9 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 2 DR Congo? SELL No 99¢ $4 59m
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 2 DR Congo? SELL No 99¢ $4 59m
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 2 DR Congo? SELL No 99¢ $8 59m
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 2 DR Congo? SELL No 99¢ $16 59m
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 2 DR Congo? SELL No 99¢ $31 59m
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 2 DR Congo? SELL No 99¢ $49 59m
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 2 DR Congo? SELL No 99¢ $50 59m
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 2 DR Congo? SELL No 99¢ $50 59m
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 2 DR Congo? SELL No 99¢ $50 59m
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 2 DR Congo? SELL No 99¢ $50 1h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 2 DR Congo? SELL No 99¢ $8 1h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 2 DR Congo? SELL No 99¢ $32 1h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 2 DR Congo? SELL No 99¢ $23 1h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 2 DR Congo? SELL No 99¢ $2 1h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 2 DR Congo? SELL No 99¢ $4 1h
Exact Score: Portugal 0 - 1 DR Congo? SELL No 99¢ $396 1h
Exact Score: Portugal 0 - 1 DR Congo? SELL No 99¢ $28 1h
Exact Score: Portugal 0 - 1 DR Congo? SELL No 99¢ $33 1h
Exact Score: Portugal 0 - 1 DR Congo? SELL No 99¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: Portugal 0 - 1 DR Congo? SELL No 99¢ $20 1h
Exact Score: Portugal 0 - 1 DR Congo? SELL No 99¢ $20 1h
Exact Score: Portugal 0 - 1 DR Congo? SELL No 99¢ $5 1h
Exact Score: Portugal 0 - 1 DR Congo? SELL No 99¢ $6 1h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 2 DR Congo? SELL No 99¢ $14 1h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 2 DR Congo? SELL No 99¢ $2 1h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 2 DR Congo? SELL No 99¢ $115 1h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? SELL No 94¢ $508 1h
Exact Score: England 3 - 2 Croatia? BUY No 97¢ $500 1h
Exact Score: Portugal 0 - 1 DR Congo? BUY No 97¢ $501 1h
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $740 on June 17? BUY Yes 98¢ $12 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $929.55 · official $925.75 (match) · 3500 history records