Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T11:06:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
88 0x8869…a54e crypto 473 markets active 0h ago coverage 11d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (65 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$715 (+2%) realized +$729 · open −$14
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate94%444W / 28L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$74per market
Trades / day65.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$186now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$187
7 days+$761
14 days+$598
30 days+$598
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$584
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (65 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-8.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 183 +3.0% -6.8% 97% 7% -5.4%
≤30d 472 +0.7% -8.9% 94% 7% -8.0%
≤90d 472 +0.7% -8.9% 94% 7% -8.0%
all 472 +0.7% -8.9% 94% 7% -8.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover65.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.9% 7% -8.0%
10% ← realistic here -17.6% 0% -16.8%
15% -25.6% 0% -24.8%
20% -32.9% 0% -32.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
84% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$57 · ×0.09 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.38 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$186
Realized+$729
Unrealized−$14
Win rate (resolved)94%
Wins / losses444 / 28
Open positions1
Markets (closed)472 / 473
History coverage11d
Avg bet$74
Trades / day65.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 472 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Down 90¢ 84¢ $200 $186 −$14 (-7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 17 $91 +$3 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 17 $191 +$13 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 17 $20 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 17 $137 +$7 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 17 $175 +$16 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 17 $201 +$10 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 17 $51 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 17 $31 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 17 $87 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 16 $127 +$13 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 16 $13 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 16 $55 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 16 $57 +$3 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 16 $96 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 16 $85 +$6 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 16 $201 +$8 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 16 $201 +$16 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 16 $36 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 16 $67 +$3 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 16 $91 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 16 $156 +$6 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 16 $201 +$8 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 15 $136 +$3 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 15 $91 +$9 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 15 $22 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 15 $83 +$4 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 15 $117 +$4 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 15 $57 +$3 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 15 $105 +$7 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 15 $100 +$10 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 15 $52 +$5 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 15 $53 +$4 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 15 $135 +$5 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 15 $57 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 15 $106 +$9 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 15 $200 +$4 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 15 $106 +$6 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 15 $144 +$9 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 15 $110 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 15 $201 +$7 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 15 $151 +$9 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 15 $201 +$10 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 15 $64 +$5 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 15 $168 +$14 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 15 $155 +$13 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 15 $195 +$6 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 14 $27 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $2 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $71 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $9 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $42 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $9 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $45 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $22 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $12 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $5 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $6 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $68 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $191 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $20 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $137 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $30 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $20 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $9 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $23 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $51 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $25 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $9 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $201 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $51 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $31 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $87 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $5 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $127 16h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $185.55 · official $110.00 · 1188 history records