Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T09:50:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
88 0x8869…0e52 politics 130 markets active 2h ago coverage 129d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$63 (-0%) realized −$63 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate9%12W / 115L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$257per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$99now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 47% −$15
politics 37% −$15
sports 7% −$33
tech 3% −$1
crypto 2% −$1
economics 2% −$1
world 1% $0
finance 0% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-12.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 21 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 89 -0.1% -9.6% 2% 0% -9.6%
all 127 -2.7% -12.0% 9% 5% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.0% 5% -9.7%
10% -20.4% 4% -18.3%
15% -28.1% 2% -26.2%
20% -35.1% 2% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 56% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -5% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$1 · ×4.47 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.47 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

129d coverage
Net worth$99
Realized−$63
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)9%
Wins / losses12 / 115
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)127 / 130
History coverage129d
Avg bet$257
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 127 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will XRP reach $2.40 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $38 $38 −$0 (-0%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $36 $36 −$0 (-0%)
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 23 $36 $0 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 21 $32 $0 -0%
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 21 $23 $0 -0%
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 20 $28 $0 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 20 $40 $0 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 19 $39 $0 -0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $47 $0 -0%
Will Marco Rubio be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 14 $27 $0 -0%
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 12 $30 $0 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 11 $316 $0 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 10 $24 $0 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 09 $31 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 08 $41 $0 -0%
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 08 $43 $0 -0%
Will Stephen Cloobeck win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 07 $26 $0 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 06 $44 $0 -0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 31 $23 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 30 $31 $0 -0%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 28 $219 $0 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 27 $471 −$1 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 25 $700 −$1 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 24 $456 −$1 -0%
Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 22 $481 $0 -0%
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 21 $228 $0 -0%
Will Alex Padilla win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 21 $284 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 20 $951 −$1 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 19 $458 −$1 -0%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $490 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 16 $267 $0 -0%
Will Haiti win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 16 $211 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 15 $197 $0 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 13 $496 −$1 -0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 13 $279 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 12 $214 $0 -0%
Will Juan Daniel Oviedo win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? May 10 $265 $0 -0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 10 $252 $0 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? May 10 $243 $0 -0%
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 20 $959 −$1 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $262 $0 -0%
Will Park Yong-jin win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 18 $208 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in April? Apr 17 $264 $0 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 17 $236 $0 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 17 $248 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 16 $278 $0 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 16 $458 $0 -0%
Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 16 $260 −$1 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $1,147 −$1 -0%
Will ByteDance have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 16 $248 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 15 $229 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $535 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $25 1h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in June? BUY No 100¢ $36 1h
Will XRP reach $2.40 in June? BUY No 100¢ $38 1h
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $36 1h
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $36 37h
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $32 40h
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $32 2d
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $23 2d
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $23 2d
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $28 2d
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $28 2d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $40 2d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $40 3d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $39 3d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $39 4d
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $47 8d
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $47 8d
Will Marco Rubio be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $27 9d
Will Marco Rubio be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $27 9d
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $30 11d
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $30 11d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $27 12d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $27 12d
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $24 12d
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $24 13d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $31 13d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $31 14d
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $41 14d
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $41 14d
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $43 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $98.89 · official $98.89 (match) · 397 history records