Wallet analysis

2026-06-30T02:32:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
88 0x8868…34c0 other 16 markets active 1h ago coverage 52d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$55 (+4%) realized +$59 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR60%break-even
Win rate73%11W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$90per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit38%portable
Net worth$72now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$120
7 days+$33
14 days−$96
30 days−$96
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 69% −$25
crypto 14% −$5
sports 10% +$29
world 7% −$99
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +60%
net ROI/market (all)-3.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +26.5% +14.5% 82% 82% -6.9%
≤30d 13 +7.1% -3.1% 69% 69% -16.4%
≤90d 15 +6.2% -3.9% 73% 60% -16.1%
all 15 +6.2% -3.9% 73% 60% -16.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.9% 60% -16.1%
10% -13.1% 27% -24.1%
15% -21.5% 20% -31.4%
20% -29.2% 20% -38.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 33% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +8% → late +5% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$78 · ×0.25 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

52d coverage
Net worth$72
Realized+$59
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)73%
Wins / losses11 / 4
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)15 / 16
History coverage52d
Avg bet$90
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit38%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 15 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Netherlands vs. Morocco: Team to Advance Morocco 42¢ 50¢ $32 $39 +$6 (+20%)
Netherlands vs. Morocco: Team to Advance Netherlands 56¢ 50¢ $37 $33 −$4 (-12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29? Jun 30 $89 −$14 -16%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Jun 30 $53 +$37 +69%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? Jun 30 $167 −$167 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $195 +$24 +12%
Will England win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $167 +$28 +16%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $140 +$27 +19%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $113 +$27 +24%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $79 +$9 +11%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $88 +$16 +18%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $10 +$13 +133%
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5) Jun 25 $32 +$33 +104%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 20 $30 −$30 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 20 $99 −$99 -100%
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? May 16 $25 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? May 16 $37 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Netherlands vs. Morocco: Team to Advance BUY Morocco 42¢ $33 48m
Netherlands vs. Morocco: Team to Advance SELL Morocco 42¢ $33 49m
Netherlands vs. Morocco: Team to Advance BUY Morocco 45¢ $37 1h
Netherlands vs. Morocco: Team to Advance BUY Netherlands 56¢ $38 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29? SELL Yes 36¢ $75 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 41¢ $89 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 58¢ $53 36h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 74¢ $167 36h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 99¢ $219 47h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 87¢ $195 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 85¢ $167 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 83¢ $140 3d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 80¢ $88 4d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 80¢ $25 4d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 89¢ $79 4d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 84¢ $88 4d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 42¢ $10 5d
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5) BUY Bosnia and Herzegovina 48¢ $32 5d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $30 12d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 73¢ $62 44d
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? SELL No 93¢ $25 44d
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $38 44d
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $37 51d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 55¢ $37 51d
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? BUY No 91¢ $25 51d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $71.65 · official $71.65 (match) · 36 history records