Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T18:29:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
88 0x8868…bfdf crypto 168 markets active 2h ago coverage 82d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$548 (+2%) realized +$514 · open +$34
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR18%break-even
Win rate80%132W / 32L
Whale WR95%big bets
Drawdown59%max
Avg bet$165per market
Trades / day5.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$127now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$18
7 days−$18
14 days−$30
30 days−$36
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 87% +$801
weather 9% −$325
other 2% +$25
sports 1% −$44
world 1% +$22
politics 1% −$18
finance 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -11.8% -20.2% 0% 0% -20.2%
≤30d 15 -3.2% -12.4% 60% 20% -14.9%
≤90d 164 -0.5% -10.0% 80% 18% -8.1%
all 164 -0.5% -10.0% 80% 18% -8.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 18% -8.1%
10% -18.6% 10% -16.9%
15% -26.5% 7% -24.9%
20% -33.7% 5% -32.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
77% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 95% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +0% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$37 · ×0.33 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.37 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

82d coverage
Net worth$127
Realized+$514
Unrealized+$34
Win rate (resolved)80%
Wins / losses132 / 32
Whale WR (big bets)95%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions4
Markets (closed)164 / 168
History coverage82d
Avg bet$165
Trades / day5.2
Drawdown59%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 164 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes 46¢ 50¢ $93 $100 +$7 (+8%)
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 4.5 Under 0¢ 98¢ $0 $10 +$10 (+0%)
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Yes 0¢ 90¢ $0 $9 +$9 (+0%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Yes 0¢ 80¢ $0 $8 +$8 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in June? Jun 22 $152 −$18 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8PM ET Jun 15 $17 −$7 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8PM ET Jun 11 $21 −$10 -46%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.10 and $1.20 on June 9? Jun 09 $80 +$2 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $60 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12PM ET Jun 08 $32 −$4 -13%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 07 $49 −$18 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 7? Jun 07 $80 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 10AM ET Jun 07 $25 +$9 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 7PM ET Jun 06 $17 −$6 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4PM ET Jun 06 $8 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12PM ET Jun 06 $12 +$6 +52%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 6? Jun 06 $9 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 6? Jun 06 $23 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 9AM ET Jun 06 $10 +$2 +15%
Will Hasbro (HAS) beat quarterly earnings? May 20 $38 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 10PM ET May 19 $9 −$4 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 5PM ET May 18 $10 +$3 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 4PM ET May 18 $7 +$2 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 10AM ET May 16 $31 −$30 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 7PM ET May 15 $54 −$8 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 4PM ET May 15 $41 −$17 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 10AM ET May 13 $27 +$4 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 7PM ET May 12 $10 −$1 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 1PM ET May 12 $10 +$9 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 11AM ET May 12 $19 +$21 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 12AM ET May 11 $8 −$4 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 10PM ET May 11 $20 −$8 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 9AM ET May 10 $8 +$7 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 11PM ET May 10 $17 +$12 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 9PM ET May 10 $27 −$6 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 8PM ET May 10 $17 −$17 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 7PM ET May 09 $10 −$4 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 3PM ET May 08 $9 +$6 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 2PM ET May 08 $16 +$3 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 1PM ET May 08 $16 +$8 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 5PM ET May 07 $6 +$2 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 3PM ET May 07 $21 +$5 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 2PM ET May 07 $4 −$2 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 1PM ET May 07 $6 −$1 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 9AM ET May 07 $6 +$2 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 2AM ET May 07 $16 +$3 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 11PM ET May 05 $12 +$12 +101%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 2? May 02 $39 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 10AM ET May 02 $13 +$2 +15%
Will Brentford FC win on 2026-05-02? May 02 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 1PM ET May 01 $7 +$6 +90%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,300 and $2,400 on April 23? Apr 23 $46 +$3 +7%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on April 23? Apr 23 $46 +$3 +7%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? Apr 23 $44 +$6 +14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $7 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $9 1h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 87¢ $9 1h
Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in June? SELL No 67¢ $134 2h
Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in June? BUY No 76¢ $145 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 46¢ $93 2d
Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in June? BUY No 76¢ $7 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8PM ET SELL Up 25¢ $10 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $17 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8PM ET SELL Down 27¢ $11 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $21 12d
Will the price of XRP be between $1.10 and $1.20 on June 9? BUY Yes 98¢ $80 13d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 9? BUY No 96¢ $60 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12PM ET SELL Up 39¢ $10 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12PM ET SELL Up 70¢ $18 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $15 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $17 14d
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev SELL Alexander Zverev 59¢ $31 15d
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev BUY Alexander Zverev 90¢ $9 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 10AM ET SELL Up 92¢ $18 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 10AM ET SELL Up 78¢ $15 15d
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev BUY Alexander Zverev 93¢ $40 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 7? BUY Up 97¢ $80 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 10AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $25 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 7PM ET SELL Down 34¢ $11 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 7PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $17 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4PM ET SELL Down 62¢ $9 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $8 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12PM ET SELL Down 80¢ $11 16d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 6? SELL Yes 100¢ $10 16d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $127.34 · official $127.34 (match) · 505 history records