Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T09:56:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
88 0x8866…912a other 11 markets active 2h ago coverage 157d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$356 (-35%) realized −$357 · open +$1
Gross ROI / mkt -30% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -37% what you keep after slip
Net edge-37%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate38%3W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$94per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit55%portable
Net worth$197now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 64% −$300
other 22% +$4
politics 10% −$8
economics 5% −$50
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-36.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d no closed markets
all 8 -30.3% -36.9% 38% 25% -48.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -36.9% 25% -48.3%
10% -42.9% 25% -53.2%
15% -48.5% 0% -57.8%
20% -53.5% 0% -61.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 92% · top 2 96% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI — too few recent
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -30% · $-wt -43% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$104 · ×0.19 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.14 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

157d coverage
Net worth$197
Realized−$357
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses3 / 5
Open positions3
Markets (closed)8 / 11
History coverage157d
Avg bet$94
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit55%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 8 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? No 60¢ 62¢ $104 $107 +$3 (+3%)
Will Charles Leclerc win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? No 85¢ 84¢ $85 $84 −$1 (-1%)
Will Kimi Antonelli achieve the fastest lap at the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? Yes 37¢ 30¢ $7 $6 −$1 (-18%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? Mar 19 $50 −$50 -100%
Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the March Meeting? Mar 19 $115 −$115 -100%
Will Axiom be accused of insider trading? Feb 26 $17 $0 +0%
Will another company be accused of insider trading? Feb 26 $7 +$2 +33%
Will the Bank of Russia make no change to the key rate after the Febru Feb 13 $249 −$242 -97%
Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the February Meeti Feb 13 $194 +$54 +28%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? Feb 11 $100 +$2 +2%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Feb 11 $100 −$8 -8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Charles Leclerc win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? BUY No 85¢ $85 1h
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? BUY No 59¢ $44 1h
Will Kimi Antonelli achieve the fastest lap at the 2026 F1 Austrian Gr BUY Yes 37¢ $8 1h
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? BUY No 60¢ $61 1h
Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the March Meeting? BUY No 10¢ $115 100d
Will Axiom be accused of insider trading? SELL No $17 121d
Will Axiom be accused of insider trading? BUY No $8 121d
Will Axiom be accused of insider trading? BUY No $9 121d
Will another company be accused of insider trading? SELL No 100¢ $9 121d
Will another company be accused of insider trading? BUY No 75¢ $7 122d
Will the Bank of Russia make no change to the key rate after the Febru SELL Yes $7 134d
Will the Bank of Russia make no change to the key rate after the Febru BUY Yes 37¢ $249 135d
Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the February Meeti SELL Yes 63¢ $249 135d
Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the February Meeti BUY Yes 51¢ $141 136d
Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the February Meeti BUY Yes 45¢ $4 136d
Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the February Meeti BUY Yes 45¢ $10 136d
Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the February Meeti BUY Yes 45¢ $39 136d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? SELL Yes 43¢ $102 136d
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL Yes 11¢ $92 136d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? BUY Yes 42¢ $100 157d
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? BUY No $50 157d
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? BUY Yes 12¢ $100 157d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $197.33 · official $197.18 (match) · 44 history records