Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T13:31:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
88 0x8865…e276 other 130 markets active 5h ago coverage 99d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$42 (-0%) realized −$42 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate15%19W / 110L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$152per market
Trades / day4.4pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$56now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$15
14 days−$22
30 days−$35
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 30% −$24
politics 26% −$11
sports 18% −$12
crypto 8% −$1
culture 5% −$8
finance 4% $0
world 4% $0
economics 3% −$1
tech 1% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 -0.8% -10.3% 14% 0% -10.0%
≤30d 65 -0.7% -10.1% 11% 0% -10.0%
≤90d 113 -0.4% -9.9% 14% 0% -9.8%
all 129 -0.4% -9.9% 15% 0% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.9% 0% -9.8%
10% -18.5% 0% -18.4%
15% -26.4% 0% -26.3%
20% -33.6% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.15 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.21 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

99d coverage
Net worth$56
Realized−$42
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)15%
Wins / losses19 / 110
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)129 / 130
History coverage99d
Avg bet$152
Trades / day4.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 129 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? No 98¢ 98¢ $56 $56 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in June? Jun 17 $59 $0 +0%
Will Morocco reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 17 $52 −$1 -1%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 16 $46 −$1 -2%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Jun 16 $168 −$3 -2%
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $56 −$1 -3%
Will Czechia reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $35 −$1 -2%
Will Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 15 $95 $0 -0%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 14 $108 $0 +0%
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 14 $274 −$3 -1%
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 14 $50 −$1 -2%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 14 $113 $0 -0%
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 13 $441 −$1 -0%
Will BetBoom win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 13 $57 $0 -0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Jun 13 $50 −$1 -2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? Jun 13 $67 $0 -0%
Will McLaren be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 12 $152 −$1 -1%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 11 $124 −$2 -1%
Will Ousmane Dembele be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $61 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 11 $41 $0 -1%
Will Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 11 $305 +$1 +0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 10 $471 −$1 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 10 $361 −$1 -0%
Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 09 $59 $0 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 09 $102 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series? Jun 07 $49 $0 -0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? Jun 06 $51 −$1 -2%
Will Germany advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 06 $9 $0 -0%
Will there be no Head of State in Iran end of 2026? Jun 06 $47 $0 -1%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 06 $100 −$1 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 05 $55 +$1 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $190,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $51 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 05 $47 $0 -0%
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 05 $270 $0 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? Jun 04 $42 $0 -0%
Will The Odyssey be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 04 $69 $0 -1%
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 04 $49 $0 -0%
Will Pete Buttigieg be the 2028 Democratic Vice-Presidential nominee? Jun 03 $52 −$2 -5%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 03 $78 $0 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 03 $184 $0 -0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 03 $244 $0 -0%
Will Angela Rayner be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in Jun 02 $51 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 02 $68 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 01 $54 $0 -0%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 01 $44 $0 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 31 $108 $0 -0%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 30 $62 $0 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 30 $53 $0 -0%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 30 $121 −$1 -1%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet May 29 $40 $0 -0%
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 28 $52 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 98¢ $56 4h
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in June? SELL No 98¢ $59 5h
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in June? BUY No 97¢ $59 10h
Will Morocco reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? SELL No 93¢ $51 10h
Will Morocco reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 93¢ $52 18h
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $45 18h
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $46 24h
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June SELL Yes 94¢ $57 25h
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 94¢ $57 33h
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 91¢ $55 33h
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 93¢ $56 41h
Will Czechia reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 97¢ $35 42h
Will Czechia reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $21 2d
Will Czechia reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $15 2d
Will Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2027 NBA Finals? SELL No 97¢ $55 2d
Will Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2027 NBA Finals? BUY No 98¢ $55 2d
Will Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2027 NBA Finals? SELL No 97¢ $39 2d
Will Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2027 NBA Finals? BUY No 98¢ $40 2d
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 97¢ $52 2d
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $52 2d
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 96¢ $56 2d
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 96¢ $56 3d
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 92¢ $49 3d
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 93¢ $50 3d
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 96¢ $62 3d
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 96¢ $62 3d
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $43 3d
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $43 3d
Will BetBoom win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL No 96¢ $57 3d
Will BetBoom win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY No 96¢ $52 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $56.42 · official $56.42 (match) · 470 history records