Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T20:29:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
88 0x8864…6f08 politics 134 markets active 2h ago coverage 128d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$135 (+1%) realized +$135 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -0% what you keep after slip
Net edge-0%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate10%13W / 120L
Drawdown15%max
Avg bet$156per market
Trades / day2.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$31now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 39% −$9
politics 39% −$9
sports 9% +$153
crypto 6% −$1
world 4% −$1
tech 2% $0
economics 1% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-0.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 4 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 92 -0.1% -9.6% 3% 0% -9.6%
all 133 +10.0% -0.5% 10% 7% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -0.5% 7% -8.9%
10% -10.0% 5% -17.7%
15% -18.7% 5% -25.6%
20% -26.7% 5% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
31% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +10% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +20% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$1 · ×27.48 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.0 per $1 lost it wins $3.0
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

128d coverage
Net worth$31
Realized+$135
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)10%
Wins / losses13 / 120
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)133 / 134
History coverage128d
Avg bet$156
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown15%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 133 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum dip to $1,100 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $31 $31 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 23 $29 $0 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 02 $30 $0 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 01 $22 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 28 $177 $0 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 23 $169 $0 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 17 $334 $0 -0%
Will Na Kyung-won win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 07 $160 $0 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 07 $172 $0 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 07 $163 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 05 $402 $0 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 05 $340 −$1 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 04 $389 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 03 $194 $0 -0%
Will Cho Kuk win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 03 $177 $0 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? May 02 $314 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 02 $161 $0 -0%
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 01 $177 $0 -0%
Will Park Ju-min win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 01 $161 $0 -0%
Will Alex Padilla win the California Governor Election in 2026? Apr 30 $139 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 30 $197 $0 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 29 $169 $0 -0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? Apr 29 $318 $0 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 27 $139 $0 -0%
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 27 $191 $0 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 27 $326 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e Apr 26 $169 $0 -0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 26 $190 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in April? Apr 24 $196 $0 -0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 24 $183 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? Apr 24 $156 $0 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 22 $267 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $200 in April? Apr 22 $185 $0 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 21 $158 $0 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $142 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $337 $0 -0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina Apr 21 $200 $0 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 20 $196 $0 -0%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 20 $177 $0 -0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no Apr 20 $147 $0 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 19 $186 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 19 $339 $0 -0%
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Apr 19 $166 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 18 $175 $0 -0%
Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 18 $342 −$1 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 17 $163 $0 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 17 $162 $0 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 17 $589 −$1 -0%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? Apr 16 $158 $0 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 16 $191 $0 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 15 $400 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ethereum dip to $1,100 in June? BUY No 100¢ $31 2h
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $29 2h
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $29 2d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $30 21d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $30 22d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $22 22d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $22 23d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $177 26d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $177 30d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $169 31d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $169 32d
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $188 37d
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $188 47d
Will Na Kyung-won win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election SELL No 100¢ $160 47d
Will Na Kyung-won win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election BUY No 100¢ $160 47d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $172 47d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $172 47d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $163 47d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $163 48d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $175 49d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $175 49d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $189 49d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $189 50d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $144 50d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $144 50d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $194 51d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $194 51d
Will Cho Kuk win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election SELL No 100¢ $177 51d
Will Cho Kuk win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election BUY No 100¢ $177 51d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $171 51d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $30.97 · official $30.97 (match) · 386 history records