Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T05:40:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
88 0x885f…4b12 other 239 markets active 1h ago coverage 128d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$71 (-0%) realized −$71 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate8%18W / 221L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$199per market
Trades / day10.0pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$15
14 days−$24
30 days−$34
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 47% −$42
sports 23% −$17
politics 8% −$3
economics 7% −$11
culture 5% −$5
crypto 4% −$2
world 3% −$2
tech 1% $0
finance 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 71 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 187 -0.2% -9.7% 4% 0% -9.7%
all 239 -0.2% -9.7% 8% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 43% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.76 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.06 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

128d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$71
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)8%
Wins / losses18 / 221
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions0
Markets (closed)239 / 239
History coverage128d
Avg bet$199
Trades / day10.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 239 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 18 $217 −$1 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 18 $48 $0 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $496 −$1 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 17 $415 −$1 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 17 $522 −$1 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? Jun 17 $429 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $311 −$1 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $98 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Jun 16 $410 −$1 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 16 $135 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $303 $0 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 16 $223 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $230 −$1 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $375 −$1 -0%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 15 $127 $0 -0%
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 15 $156 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $101 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $173 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $215 $0 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $282 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $406 $0 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 14 $365 −$1 -0%
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 13 $197 $0 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $215 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $830 −$1 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 13 $51 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 12 $199 $0 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Jun 11 $352 −$1 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $506 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Jun 10 $278 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? Jun 10 $149 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 10 $256 −$1 -0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 10 $53 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 09 $53 $0 -0%
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 09 $327 −$1 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $209 $0 -0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 09 $133 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $500 −$1 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 08 $129 $0 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 08 $582 $0 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $112 $0 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 07 $549 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 06 $370 −$1 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 06 $559 −$1 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 06 $112 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $542 −$1 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 04 $320 −$1 -0%
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 04 $252 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Jun 03 $288 −$1 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 03 $468 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $47 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $47 3h
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $47 4h
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $48 6h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $48 7h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $48 8h
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $48 13h
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $48 14h
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $48 16h
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $48 18h
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $48 23h
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $48 24h
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $48 26h
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $48 28h
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $48 29h
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $48 30h
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? SELL No 99¢ $48 32h
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? BUY No 100¢ $48 34h
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $48 38h
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $48 39h
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $48 41h
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $48 43h
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $48 44h
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $49 46h
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $49 47h
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $49 2d
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $49 2d
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $49 2d
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $49 2d
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $49 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1314 history records