Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T02:09:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
88 0x885e…08b8 sports 61 markets active 0h ago coverage 26d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$84 (-6%) realized −$88 · open +$4
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate32%18W / 39L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day4.5pace
Fees−$21est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$134now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$46
7 days+$66
14 days−$75
30 days−$124
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 50% +$14
other 47% −$134
crypto 3% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-16.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 +12.3% +1.6% 41% 41% +6.4%
≤30d 57 -7.7% -16.5% 32% 32% -19.2%
≤90d 57 -7.7% -16.5% 32% 32% -19.2%
all 57 -7.7% -16.5% 32% 32% -19.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.5% 32% -19.2%
10% -24.5% 30% -26.9%
15% -31.8% 26% -34.0%
20% -38.5% 25% -40.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$12 · ×1.58 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.73 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

26d coverage
Net worth$134
Realized−$88
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses18 / 39
Est. fees paid−$21
Open positions4
Markets (closed)57 / 61
History coverage26d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day4.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 57 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $64 $70 +$6 (+9%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $40 $39 −$1 (-3%)
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 3.5 Over 13¢ 10¢ $18 $13 −$5 (-27%)
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 3.5 Over 36¢ 55¢ $8 $12 +$4 (+51%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 16 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $5 −$5 -98%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 4.5 Jun 26 $15 +$15 +97%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $51 −$14 -27%
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 4.5 Jun 25 $24 −$23 -96%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $10 +$8 +83%
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 Jun 24 $20 +$75 +365%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 4.5 Jun 23 $19 −$19 -98%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $7 +$2 +32%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $23 +$53 +226%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 4.5 Jun 22 $20 −$10 -50%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $10 −$2 -18%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $8 +$7 +91%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 6.5 Jun 21 $26 −$8 -30%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $17 +$24 +136%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $19 −$2 -9%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $10 +$3 +26%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 Jun 20 $15 −$7 -49%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 5.5 Jun 20 $21 +$14 +66%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $8 −$8 -98%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $30 −$22 -72%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $13 −$13 -98%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5 Jun 18 $20 +$23 +115%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $15 −$15 -98%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $20 −$5 -27%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $19 −$19 -99%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $22 −$3 -14%
Spread: Ghana (-1.5) Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $25 −$9 -34%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $18 +$3 +17%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $20 +$8 +41%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $20 −$20 -98%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $16 −$6 -37%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $15 +$16 +108%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $6 −$1 -15%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $26 −$15 -58%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $12 −$1 -5%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $16 +$16 +95%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $28 −$3 -12%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $19 +$6 +30%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $10 +$10 +95%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$5 -47%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 15 $10 $0 -4%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $103 −$22 -21%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $15 −$2 -12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 36¢ $8 13m
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 13¢ $18 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 18¢ $5 1h
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 59¢ $30 1h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $41 2h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $37 3h
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 29¢ $15 4h
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 4.5 SELL Over $1 4h
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 26¢ $24 8h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 20¢ $10 25h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 86¢ $18 26h
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 100¢ $95 26h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 46¢ $10 27h
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 21¢ $20 28h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 23¢ $19 2d
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 37¢ $9 2d
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 27¢ $7 2d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $51 2d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $66 2d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $68 2d
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 30¢ $23 3d
France vs. Iraq: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 20¢ $10 3d
France vs. Iraq: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 38¢ $20 3d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 24¢ $8 4d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 28¢ $10 4d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 34¢ $16 4d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 17¢ $8 4d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 6.5 SELL Over 29¢ $18 4d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 40¢ $26 4d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes $5 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $134.17 · official $134.17 (match) · 135 history records