Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T04:13:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
88 0x885c…4c7b crypto 1603 markets active 1h ago coverage 612d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$157 (-2%) realized −$157 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate79%1260W / 343L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day5.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$13
14 days−$47
30 days−$144
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 63% −$159
politics 34% +$4
economics 3% −$86
other 0% −$1
sports 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-12.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 235 -2.2% -11.5% 81% 23% -11.0%
≤30d 1514 -2.4% -11.7% 80% 52% -12.0%
≤90d 1585 -2.7% -12.0% 79% 52% -12.1%
all 1603 -2.9% -12.2% 79% 51% -12.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.2% 51% -12.1%
10% -20.6% 5% -20.5%
15% -28.2% 0% -28.2%
20% -35.3% 0% -35.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$2 · ×0.19 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.7 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

612d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$157
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)79%
Wins / losses1260 / 343
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1603 / 1603
History coverage612d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day5.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1603 Trades
no open positions (51 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$1 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 17 $3 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 16 $6 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 16 $6 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 16 $6 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$3 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 15 $6 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 15 $4 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$1 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$1 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$2 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 15 $6 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$1 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET SELL Up 76¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $6 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET SELL Up 100¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $5 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $5 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $6 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $5 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $5 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $5 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $6 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $6 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $6 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $6 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $6 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $5 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $5 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $5 13h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3219 history records