Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T16:45:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
88 0x885a…8bfd sports 24 markets active 1h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$612 (-11%) realized −$643 · open +$31
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate39%9W / 14L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$230per market
Trades / day8.1pace
Fees−$76est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$127now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$67
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-15.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 -6.5% -15.4% 39% 35% -11.2%
≤30d 23 -6.5% -15.4% 39% 35% -11.2%
≤90d 23 -6.5% -15.4% 39% 35% -11.2%
all 23 -6.5% -15.4% 39% 35% -11.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.4% 35% -11.2%
10% -23.5% 35% -19.7%
15% -30.9% 30% -27.4%
20% -37.7% 26% -34.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 67% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -51% → late +35% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$229 vs −$154 · ×1.49 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$127
Realized−$643
Unrealized+$31
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses9 / 14
Est. fees paid−$76
Open positions1
Markets (closed)23 / 24
History coverage6d
Avg bet$230
Trades / day8.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 23 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Team Falcons 76¢ 100¢ $97 $127 +$31 (+32%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mallorca Championships: Mariano Navone vs Lorenzo Sonego Jun 21 $438 +$586 +134%
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Matteo Arnaldi vs Toby Samuel Jun 21 $72 −$3 -4%
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz Jun 20 $199 −$21 -11%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $44 +$44 +101%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League S Jun 20 $84 +$138 +165%
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Grind Back (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia Jun 20 $119 +$59 +50%
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs CYBERSHOKE Esports (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episo Jun 20 $2 $0 -5%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $1,122 +$798 +71%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 19 $210 −$207 -99%
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs INOX Division (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Pla Jun 19 $2 +$3 +129%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $312 −$309 -99%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof Jun 19 $578 −$86 -15%
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoff Jun 19 $189 −$114 -60%
Map Handicap: ME (-1.5) vs EAC Rising (+1.5) Jun 19 $214 −$210 -98%
Valorant: YFP Gaming vs NRG Academy (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 Jun 19 $353 +$342 +97%
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - European Pro League Jun 18 $265 +$90 +34%
Set Handicap: Risso (-1.5) vs Souza (+1.5) Jun 18 $57 −$56 -98%
Nottingham Open: Ann Li vs Taylah Preston Jun 18 $142 −$140 -99%
Set Handicap: O'Connell (-1.5) vs Bonzi (+1.5) Jun 18 $62 −$62 -99%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Jun 16 $961 −$949 -99%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $4 $0 -3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 16 $2 $0 +4%
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs HyperSpirit (BO3) - European Pro Leagu Jun 16 $2 −$2 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 76¢ $97 1h
Mallorca Championships: Mariano Navone vs Lorenzo Sonego BUY Lorenzo Sonego 39¢ $201 1h
Mallorca Championships: Mariano Navone vs Lorenzo Sonego BUY Lorenzo Sonego 45¢ $238 1h
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Matteo Arnaldi vs Toby Samuel SELL Toby Samuel 28¢ $69 2h
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Matteo Arnaldi vs Toby Samuel BUY Toby Samuel 28¢ $72 2h
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz SELL Taylor Fritz 43¢ $177 25h
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz BUY Taylor Fritz 47¢ $199 25h
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs CYBERSHOKE Esports (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episo SELL FOKUS 54¢ $2 31h
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs CYBERSHOKE Esports (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episo BUY FOKUS 55¢ $2 31h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League S BUY KOLESIE 37¢ $84 31h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $44 31h
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Grind Back (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia BUY REKONIX 66¢ $119 32h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL Spirit 100¢ $1,920 44h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 59¢ $210 44h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 68¢ $312 45h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 67¢ $387 47h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 65¢ $22 47h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 62¢ $253 47h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 46¢ $153 47h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 55¢ $106 2d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 50¢ $200 2d
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY EDward Gaming 54¢ $167 2d
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY Paper Rex 83¢ $411 2d
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoff BUY KT Rolster Challengers 48¢ $117 2d
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoff SELL KT Rolster Challengers 37¢ $54 2d
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoff SELL KT Rolster Challengers 27¢ $17 2d
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoff BUY KT Rolster Challengers 33¢ $72 2d
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs INOX Division (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Pla BUY 1WIN 43¢ $2 2d
Map Handicap: ME (-1.5) vs EAC Rising (+1.5) BUY EAC Rising 33¢ $46 2d
Map Handicap: ME (-1.5) vs EAC Rising (+1.5) BUY EAC Rising 34¢ $45 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $127.30 · official $127.30 (match) · 55 history records