Wallet analysis

2026-06-30T00:06:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
88 0x8859…89d6 sports 12 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ bot/MM pace (57 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$17 (-7%) realized −$57 · open +$40
Gross ROI / mkt -69% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -76% what you keep after slip
Net edge-76%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate20%1W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day57.0pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$254now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 85% +$35
other 15% −$11
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-72.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -69.2% -72.2% 20% 20% -48.3%
≤30d 5 -69.2% -72.2% 20% 20% -48.3%
≤90d 5 -69.2% -72.2% 20% 20% -48.3%
all 5 -69.2% -72.2% 20% 20% -48.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover57.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -72.2% 20% -48.3%
10% ← realistic here -74.8% 20% -53.2%
15% -77.3% 20% -57.7%
20% -79.5% 20% -61.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -43% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -69% · $-wt -43% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
4.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$6 · ×1.27 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.32 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$254
Realized−$57
Unrealized+$40
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses1 / 4
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions7
Markets (closed)5 / 12
History coverage1d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day57.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 5 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
New York Mets vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 8.5 Under 51¢ 76¢ $130 $193 +$63 (+48%)
Texas Rangers vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 7.5 Over 53¢ 29¢ $50 $27 −$23 (-45%)
Cincinnati Reds vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 8.5 Over 56¢ 57¢ $11 $11 +$0 (+2%)
San Francisco Giants vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 9.5 Over 46¢ 44¢ $11 $11 −$0 (-3%)
Miami Marlins vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 11.5 Over 49¢ 52¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+5%)
Game 1: Odd/Even Total Kills? Odd 51¢ 50¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Game 1: Odd/Even Total Kills? Even 51¢ 50¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 36°C or higher on June 30? Yes $1 $1 +$0 (+25%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ayase Ueda: 3+ shots Jun 29 $14 +$8 +54%
Vinícius Júnior: 2+ shots Jun 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ shots Jun 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Vinícius Júnior: 3+ shots Jun 29 $17 −$16 -98%
Game Handicap: Nemiga (-1.5) vs Hive (+1.5) Jun 29 $6 −$5 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
New York Mets vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 51¢ $2 1h
New York Mets vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 51¢ $2 1h
New York Mets vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 51¢ $2 1h
New York Mets vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 51¢ $2 1h
New York Mets vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 51¢ $2 1h
New York Mets vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 51¢ $2 1h
New York Mets vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 51¢ $2 1h
New York Mets vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 51¢ $2 1h
New York Mets vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 51¢ $2 1h
New York Mets vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 51¢ $2 1h
New York Mets vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 51¢ $2 1h
New York Mets vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 51¢ $2 1h
New York Mets vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 51¢ $7 1h
New York Mets vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 51¢ $101 1h
San Francisco Giants vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 46¢ $2 6h
San Francisco Giants vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 46¢ $1 6h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 36°C or higher on June 30 BUY Yes $1 6h
San Francisco Giants vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 46¢ $1 6h
Cincinnati Reds vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 56¢ $1 6h
Cincinnati Reds vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 56¢ $1 7h
Vinícius Júnior: 2+ shots BUY No 17¢ $1 7h
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ shots BUY No $1 7h
San Francisco Giants vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 46¢ $1 7h
Vinícius Júnior: 3+ shots BUY No 37¢ $8 7h
Vinícius Júnior: 3+ shots BUY No 36¢ $2 7h
Vinícius Júnior: 3+ shots BUY No 36¢ $4 7h
Ayase Ueda: 3+ shots BUY No 65¢ $14 7h
Texas Rangers vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 53¢ $26 8h
Cincinnati Reds vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 56¢ $1 8h
San Francisco Giants vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 46¢ $1 8h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $254.38 · official $254.38 (match) · 58 history records