Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T03:41:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

88
0x8859…a417
crypto · 1346 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$266 -4%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$266 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$2
Realized−$266
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses759 / 586
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1345 / 1346
History coverage94d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day18.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 1 History 1345 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days+$24
14 days+$24
30 days+$25
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Up 61¢ 56¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-9%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Down 51¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Down 56¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Down 51¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Down 37¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Down 42¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Up 63¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Down 52¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Down 64¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 6PM ET Up 58¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Down 51¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 2AM ET Up 55¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Down 49¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Down 50¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Down 55¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Down 65¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Down 53¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 9PM ET Down 55¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Down 40¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Down 49¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Down 49¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Down 62¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 7PM ET Up 51¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Down 39¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Down 56¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 13 $2 +$2 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$3 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 13 $2 +$1 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 13 $2 +$1 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$2 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$4 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 12 $2 +$1 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 12 $2 +$2 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$3 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 12 $2 +$1 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$5 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$3 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 12 $2 +$6 +266%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 12 $2 +$2 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 12 $2 +$1 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 12 $2 +$1 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 12 $2 +$1 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 12 $2 +$1 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$4 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 12 $2 +$1 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 12 $2 +$1 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 12 $2 +$2 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 12 $2 +$2 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 12 $2 +$2 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 12 $2 +$1 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$3 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 12 $2 +$1 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 12 $2 +$2 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 12 $2 +$1 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 12 $2 +$2 +79%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 100% −$266
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $2 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $2 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $2 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $2 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $5 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $2 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $2 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $5 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $2 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $5 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $5 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $2 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $2 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $2 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $2 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $2 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $2 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $2 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $2 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $2 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $2 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $2 20h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-13.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 123 +2.2% -7.5% 57% 57% -3.2%
≤30d 160 +2.5% -7.3% 57% 57% -4.7%
≤90d 1310 -6.0% -15.0% 56% 42% -14.8%
all 1345 -4.8% -13.8% 56% 43% -13.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover18.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.8% 43% -13.6%
10% -22.1% 42% -21.8%
15% -29.6% 40% -29.4%
20% -36.5% 37% -36.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.82 · official $1.66 (match) · 3091 history records