Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:04:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
88 0x8857…4b5b sports 487 markets active 9h ago coverage 32d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialist⚠ High turnoverP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$5,318 (-2%) realized −$5,318 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate45%217W / 270L
Whale WR54%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$453per market
Trades / day35.7pace
Fees−$2,891est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 32d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 81% +$4,084
other 18% −$12,358
crypto 0% −$196
finance 0% −$130
politics 0% −$10
world 0% −$54
weather 0% −$93
tech 0% −$80
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-18.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 71 -12.0% -20.3% 44% 42% -5.8%
≤30d 478 -9.8% -18.4% 44% 42% -13.2%
≤90d 487 -9.6% -18.2% 45% 42% -13.1%
all 487 -9.6% -18.2% 45% 42% -13.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover35.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -18.2% 42% -13.1%
10% ← realistic here -26.1% 37% -21.5%
15% -33.2% 27% -29.0%
20% -39.8% 18% -36.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 54% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -13% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$371 vs −$331 · ×1.12 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

32d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$5,318
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses217 / 270
Whale WR (big bets)54%
Est. fees paid−$2,891
Open positions0
Markets (closed)487 / 487
History coverage32d
Avg bet$453
Trades / day35.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 487 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $1,001 −$990 -99%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $191 −$186 -98%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 5.5 Jun 16 $495 −$303 -61%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $234 −$234 -100%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $801 −$801 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $621 −$612 -98%
Iraq vs. Norway: Draw at halftime? Jun 16 $503 −$495 -98%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $49 −$49 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $1,574 −$1,574 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $503 +$648 +129%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $1,909 +$2,089 +109%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $1,000 +$1,909 +191%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $653 +$422 +65%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: 2nd Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $150 −$150 -100%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $149 −$149 -100%
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) Jun 15 $150 −$150 -100%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Sweden O/U 6.5 Corners Jun 15 $132 +$63 +48%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $149 +$69 +46%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Tunisia O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $148 +$42 +28%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Draw at halftime? Jun 15 $83 +$62 +76%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: 2nd Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $147 +$85 +58%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $57 +$29 +52%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Ecuador O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $148 +$66 +45%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $147 −$147 -100%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Netherlands O/U 6.5 Corners Jun 14 $147 +$55 +37%
Netherlands vs. Japan: 2nd Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $143 +$54 +38%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Japan O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $150 +$68 +46%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Netherlands O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $149 +$32 +21%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Japan O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $149 −$16 -11%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 14 $149 +$36 +24%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $658 +$750 +114%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $1,895 +$1,839 +97%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Türkiye O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $148 −$148 -100%
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) Jun 14 $533 −$533 -100%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Türkiye O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $147 +$46 +32%
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) Jun 14 $2,080 +$934 +45%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 13 $1,038 −$508 -49%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $149 −$149 -100%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $3,374 −$1,324 -39%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $149 +$36 +24%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Bosnia-Herzegovina 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $7 −$7 -100%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Bosnia-Herzegovina O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $147 +$41 +28%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Canada O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $149 +$36 +24%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $149 +$52 +35%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $665 −$332 -50%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 12 $3,149 −$661 -21%
Ilkley: Dane Sweeny vs Billy Harris Jun 12 $250 +$402 +161%
HSBC Championships: Sorana Cirstea vs Emma Raducanu Jun 12 $255 −$255 -100%
Libema Open: Daria Snigur vs Robin Montgomery Jun 12 $246 −$246 -100%
Ilkley: Arthur Gea vs Mark Lajal Jun 12 $491 −$491 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 62¢ $1,001 9h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 15¢ $191 9h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 12¢ $192 9h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 30¢ $495 10h
Iraq vs. Norway: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 45¢ $503 10h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 62¢ $801 12h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 20¢ $3 13h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 20¢ $200 13h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 13¢ $31 14h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 35¢ $612 25h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 43¢ $503 34h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 47¢ $4 37h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 47¢ $1,905 37h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $2,910 38h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $3 39h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $997 39h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 53¢ $499 44h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 49¢ $567 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 49¢ $508 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 60¢ $653 2d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Sweden O/U 6.5 Corners BUY Under 67¢ $132 2d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners BUY Under 68¢ $90 2d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners BUY Under 68¢ $4 2d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners BUY Over 66¢ $49 2d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Tunisia O/U 1.5 BUY Under 78¢ $148 2d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners BUY Under 68¢ $55 2d
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) BUY Tunisia 74¢ $150 2d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 56¢ $83 2d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 78¢ $149 2d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners BUY Under 66¢ $57 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1464 history records