Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:03:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
88 0x8855…0557 other 51 markets active 2h ago coverage 9d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$620 (+36%) realized +$620 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate25%13W / 38L
Drawdown27%max
Avg bet$33per market
Trades / day10.5pace
Fees−$26est.
Kalshi-fit18%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$57
7 days+$547
14 days+$547
30 days+$547
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 50% +$750
other 48% −$167
crypto 2% −$36
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 51 -0.4% -9.9% 25% 25% +19.5%
≤30d 51 -0.4% -9.9% 25% 25% +19.5%
≤90d 51 -0.4% -9.9% 25% 25% +19.5%
all 51 -0.4% -9.9% 25% 25% +19.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.9% 25% +19.5%
10% -18.5% 24% +8.0%
15% -26.4% 22% -2.4%
20% -33.6% 18% -12.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +32% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +32% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +27% → late -27% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$89 vs −$16 · ×5.54 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.9 per $1 lost it wins $1.9
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$620
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses13 / 38
Est. fees paid−$26
Open positions0
Markets (closed)51 / 51
History coverage9d
Avg bet$33
Trades / day10.5
Drawdown27%
Kalshi-fit18%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 51 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 1 Panama? Jun 18 $21 +$8 +38%
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 1 Panama? Jun 18 $21 −$10 -49%
Exact Score: Ghana 2 - 1 Panama? Jun 17 $31 −$21 -68%
Exact Score: England 3 - 3 Croatia? Jun 17 $21 −$21 -100%
Exact Score: England 1 - 2 Croatia? Jun 17 $21 −$21 -100%
Exact Score: England 1 - 1 Croatia? Jun 17 $51 −$51 -100%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $21 −$21 -100%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $21 −$21 -100%
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 2 Jordan? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 1 Jordan? Jun 17 $10 +$12 +120%
Exact Score: France 0 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: France 1 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $31 −$31 -100%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $56 +$144 +257%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 2 Egypt? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Belgium 3 - 1 Egypt? Jun 15 $11 −$11 -100%
Exact Score: Sweden 2 - 0 Tunisia? Jun 15 $11 −$11 -100%
Exact Score: Sweden 3 - 0 Tunisia? Jun 15 $9 −$9 -100%
Exact Score: Sweden 3 - 1 Tunisia? Jun 15 $18 +$53 +288%
Exact Score: Sweden 1 - 0 Tunisia? Jun 15 $15 −$6 -37%
Exact Score: Sweden 2 - 1 Tunisia? Jun 15 $11 +$1 +12%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 1 - 1 Ecuador? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 1 - 2 Ecuador? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $20 +$91 +442%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 0 Japan? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 1 Japan? Jun 14 $15 −$15 -100%
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 1 Japan? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 0 Türkiye? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Australia 2 - 1 Türkiye? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 2 Türkiye? Jun 14 $10 +$2 +23%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $143 +$243 +170%
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 2 Scotland? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Haiti 3 - 0 Scotland? Jun 14 $10 −$8 -81%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 14 $398 +$201 +50%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 1 - 1 Czechia? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Morocco? Jun 14 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 14 $21 −$21 -100%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 1 - 0 Czechia? Jun 14 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $51 −$51 -100%
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 2 Morocco? Jun 14 $21 −$21 -100%
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 3 Scotland? Jun 14 $10 −$9 -88%
Exact Score: Haiti 2 - 0 Scotland? Jun 14 $10 −$7 -69%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 2 Morocco? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Qatar 1 - 1 Switzerland? Jun 13 $10 +$190 +1843%
Exact Score: Qatar 1 - 3 Switzerland? Jun 13 $51 −$44 -86%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 3 Switzerland? Jun 13 $21 −$3 -17%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $102 +$107 +105%
Exact Score: United States 3 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: United States 3 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 13 $20 −$19 -91%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 13 $21 +$14 +68%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 1 Panama? SELL Yes 16¢ $28 1h
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 1 Panama? SELL Yes 8¢ $10 1h
Exact Score: Ghana 2 - 1 Panama? SELL Yes 3¢ $10 2h
Exact Score: Ghana 2 - 1 Panama? BUY Yes 9¢ $31 3h
Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 1 Panama? BUY Yes 11¢ $21 3h
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 1 Panama? BUY Yes 15¢ $21 3h
Exact Score: England 3 - 3 Croatia? BUY Yes 12¢ $21 5h
Exact Score: England 1 - 2 Croatia? BUY Yes 6¢ $21 6h
Exact Score: England 1 - 1 Croatia? BUY Yes 13¢ $51 6h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 14¢ $21 8h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 8¢ $21 10h
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 2 Jordan? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 20h
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 1 Jordan? SELL Yes 23¢ $23 20h
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 1 Jordan? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 22h
Exact Score: France 0 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 20¢ $10 29h
Exact Score: France 1 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 14¢ $31 30h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $0 2d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $2 2d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $2 2d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $28 2d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $3 2d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $2 2d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $3 2d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $2 2d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 2d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $3 2d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $10 2d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 2d
Exact Score: Belgium 3 - 1 Egypt? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 2d
Exact Score: Belgium 3 - 1 Egypt? BUY Yes 8¢ $9 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2822 history records