Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T23:58:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
88 0x8854…4d4d crypto 29 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ bot/MM pace (76 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$292 (-10%) realized −$292 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -23% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -40% what you keep after slip
Net edge-40%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate59%17W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$99per market
Trades / day76.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$275
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (76 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-30.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 -22.6% -30.0% 59% 7% -19.3%
≤30d 29 -22.6% -30.0% 59% 7% -19.3%
≤90d 29 -22.6% -30.0% 59% 7% -19.3%
all 29 -22.6% -30.0% 59% 7% -19.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover76.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -30.0% 7% -19.3%
10% ← realistic here -36.7% 7% -27.0%
15% -42.8% 3% -34.1%
20% -48.4% 0% -40.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 51% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
82% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -23% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -25% → late -20% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$38 · ×0.28 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.39 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$292
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses17 / 12
Open positions0
Markets (closed)29 / 29
History coverage1d
Avg bet$99
Trades / day76.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 29 Trades
no open positions (5 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 24 $100 +$6 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 24 $102 +$37 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 24 $100 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 24 $105 −$4 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 24 $205 +$10 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 24 $100 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 24 $101 +$10 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 24 $100 +$6 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 24 $106 −$5 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 24 $10 −$5 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 24 $5 $0 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 24 $10 −$5 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 24 $21 −$13 -61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 24 $15 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 24 $30 −$15 -49%
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 24 $200 −$96 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 24 $58 −$25 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 24 $206 −$83 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 24 $101 +$8 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 24 $201 −$200 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 24 $100 +$7 +7%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 24 $203 +$53 +26%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 24 $101 +$8 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 24 $200 +$7 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 24 $100 +$5 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 24 $100 +$6 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 24 $100 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 24 $100 +$6 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET SELL Up 89¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $101 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET SELL Up 49¢ $97 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $104 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $111 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $101 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $100 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET SELL Up 94¢ $106 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $101 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET SELL Up 48¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 3¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET SELL Down 89¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Down 9¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET SELL Up 71¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Up 2¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET SELL Up 66¢ $8 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 105 history records