Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T07:01:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

88 0x8851…43ee other 9 markets active 2h ago coverage 5d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died

Total PnL −$37 (-6%) realized −$35 · open −$2

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip

Net edge-6%after slip

Net WR62%break-even

Win rate62%5W / 3L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$65per market

Trades / day1.8pace

Kalshi-fit0%portable

Net worth$58now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +62%

net ROI/market (all)-6.1%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	8	+3.8%	-6.1%	62%	62%	-16.2%
≤30d	8	+3.8%	-6.1%	62%	62%	-16.2%
≤90d	8	+3.8%	-6.1%	62%	62%	-16.2%
all	8	+3.8%	-6.1%	62%	62%	-16.2%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover1.8 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-6.1%	62%	-16.2%
10%	-15.1%	62%	-24.2%
15%	-23.3%	50%	-31.5%
20%	-30.8%	50%	-38.2%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 37% · top 2 57% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +4% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$35 vs −$71 · ×0.49 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.82 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage

Net worth$58

Realized−$35

Unrealized−$2

Win rate (resolved)62%

Wins / losses5 / 3

Open positions1

Markets (closed)8 / 9

History coverage5d

Avg bet$65

Trades / day1.8

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 8 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	Yes	67¢	64¢	$60	$58	−$2 (-4%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 21	$50	−$50	-99%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 20	$66	+$34	+52%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 20	$46	+$31	+67%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 19	$22	+$24	+109%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 18	$71	−$70	-99%
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$70	+$20	+29%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$101	−$93	-92%
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 16	$100	+$65	+65%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	67¢	$61	1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	69¢	$50	18h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	65¢	$66	44h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	59¢	$46	2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	47¢	$22	3d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	74¢	$71	3d
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	77¢	$70	4d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	SELL Yes	6¢	$8	4d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	77¢	$101	4d
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	60¢	$100	5d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $57.76 · official $57.76 (match) · 15 history records