Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T22:53:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
88 0x884e…c6cf crypto 109 markets active 2h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$51 (+5%) realized +$51 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate54%59W / 50L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day42.0pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 64% −$66
sports 21% −$58
other 15% +$98
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-20.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 109 -12.6% -20.9% 54% 50% -11.6%
≤30d 109 -12.6% -20.9% 54% 50% -11.6%
≤90d 109 -12.6% -20.9% 54% 50% -11.6%
all 109 -12.6% -20.9% 54% 50% -11.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover42.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -20.9% 50% -11.6%
10% ← realistic here -28.5% 38% -20.0%
15% -35.4% 26% -27.7%
20% -41.7% 20% -34.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$7 · ×0.78 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$51
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses59 / 50
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)109 / 109
History coverage6d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day42.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 109 Trades
no open positions (29 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 23 $17 −$17 -99%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 23 $8 +$9 +114%
Spread: England (-2.5) Jun 23 $20 −$20 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 23 $10 +$3 +32%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 23 $51 +$10 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 22 $31 −$11 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 22 $5 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 22 $17 −$6 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 22 $21 +$5 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 22 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 22 $20 +$3 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 22 $21 +$11 +51%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 22 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 22 $10 −$5 -53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 22 $5 −$4 -83%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 22 $5 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 22 $21 +$5 +22%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 22 $10 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 22 $10 −$4 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 22 $5 +$1 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 22 $2 +$1 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 22 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 22 $7 −$1 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 22 $1 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 22 $5 +$1 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 22 $7 −$2 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 22 $1 $0 +2%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $10 +$9 +93%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $20 +$10 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 22 $5 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 22 $1 +$1 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 22 $5 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 22 $5 +$2 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 22 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 22 $17 +$5 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 22 $1 +$2 +152%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 22 $6 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 22 $5 +$4 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 22 $5 +$5 +99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 22 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 22 $5 +$5 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 22 $11 −$1 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 22 $6 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 51¢ $17 2h
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY Portugal 46¢ $8 7h
Spread: England (-2.5) BUY England 39¢ $20 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $5 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $5 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $5 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $5 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET SELL Down 67¢ $6 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $5 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET SELL Up 96¢ $5 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $5 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET SELL Down 50¢ $5 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $5 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $5 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET SELL Up 36¢ $10 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $5 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $5 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $5 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 2¢ $1 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $5 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET SELL Down 73¢ $14 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET SELL Down 64¢ $11 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $5 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $5 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET SELL Down 75¢ $15 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $5 24h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 294 history records