Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T22:56:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
88 0x884d…afbb sports 110 markets active 0h ago coverage 11d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
Total PnL −$118 (-22%) realized −$118 · open −$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -26% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -38% what you keep after slip
Net edge-38%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate36%36W / 63L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day13.6pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$29now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days−$46
14 days−$118
30 days−$118
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 87% −$106
other 7% −$7
crypto 2% −$6
politics 2% −$4
finance 1% −$4
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-32.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 71 -18.8% -26.5% 41% 39% -21.6%
≤30d 99 -25.7% -32.8% 36% 35% -31.2%
≤90d 99 -25.7% -32.8% 36% 35% -31.2%
all 99 -25.7% -32.8% 36% 35% -31.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -32.8% 35% -31.2%
10% -39.2% 30% -37.8%
15% -45.1% 29% -43.8%
20% -50.5% 20% -49.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -24% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -26% · $-wt -24% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -18% → late -33% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$4 · ×0.94 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.54 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$29
Realized−$118
Unrealized−$8
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses36 / 63
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions11
Markets (closed)99 / 110
History coverage11d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day13.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 99 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 51¢ 60¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+18%)
France vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Over 70¢ 69¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score Yes 49¢ 48¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) Ecuador 5¢ 5¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+3%)
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Tampa Bay Rays 50¢ 98¢ $2 $3 +$2 (+95%)
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 15, 2026? Yes 99¢ 99¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-0%)
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) Ecuador 66¢ 66¢ $2 $3 +$0 (+1%)
ITF Cuiaba: Antonia Rivera vs Carolina Alves Antonia Rivera 51¢ 33¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-35%)
Sweden vs. Tunisia: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Over 56¢ 9¢ $4 $1 −$3 (-84%)
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Yes 15¢ 1¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-94%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Yes 48¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
HSBC Championships: Shuai Zhang vs Alexandra Eala Shuai Zhang 17¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 9.5 Over 61¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Flavio Cobolli 23¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bratislava: Pedro Boscardin Dias vs Emilio Nava Pedro Boscardin Dias 31¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Stuttgart Open: Tom Gentzsch vs Rinky Hijikata Tom Gentzsch 29¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
ITF Tokyo: Funa Kozaki vs Nao Nishino Funa Kozaki 12¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Modena: Andrea Lazaro Garcia vs Julia Grabher Andrea Lazaro Garcia 69¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Perugia: Pablo Llamas Ruiz vs Jacopo Vasami Jacopo Vasami 6¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Lyon: Alejandro Moro Canas vs Kimmer Coppejans Alejandro Moro Canas 9¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 216.5 Over 55¢ 0¢ $21 $0 −$21 (-100%)
Makarska: Darja Semenistaja vs Maria Timofeeva Darja Semenistaja 12¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Golden Knights 40¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Modena: Marina Bassols Ribera vs Darja Semenistaja Marina Bassols Ribera 26¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Spread: Knicks (-3.5) Knicks 45¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $1 +$1 +108%
Modena: Katarzyna Kawa vs Lucia Bronzetti Jun 14 $1 +$2 +223%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Draw at halftime? Jun 14 $5 +$5 +103%
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $1 $0 +11%
HSBC Championships: Donna Vekic vs Emma Raducanu Jun 14 $1 $0 +20%
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 June 8-14? Jun 14 $5 −$3 -51%
Spread: Spurs (-18.5) Jun 13 $4 −$4 -97%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Dino Prizmic vs Rinky Hijikata Jun 13 $3 −$2 -98%
Tucuman: Lorenzo Joaquin Rodriguez vs Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida Jun 11 $5 −$5 -97%
Tucuman: Santiago Rodriguez Taverna vs Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi Jun 11 $3 +$3 +96%
Cattolica: Dusan Lajovic vs Oriol Roca Batalla Jun 11 $3 −$2 -98%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets Jun 11 $3 −$2 -98%
Cattolica: Jesper de Jong vs Federico Bondioli Jun 11 $3 +$1 +38%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? Jun 11 $5 −$4 -67%
Stuttgart Open: Jan-Lennard Struff vs Alexander Bublik Jun 10 $5 −$4 -72%
Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5) Jun 10 $5 −$5 -97%
Lyon: Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo vs Luca Van Assche Jun 10 $5 +$6 +113%
Lyon: Alejandro Moro Canas vs Kimmer Coppejans Jun 10 $3 −$2 -96%
Modena: Noma Noha Akugue vs Katarzyna Kawa Jun 10 $3 −$2 -97%
Stuttgart Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Yannick Hanfmann Jun 10 $3 +$2 +77%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 5.5 Jun 10 $4 −$2 -39%
ITF Wuning: Yujia Huang vs Han Shi Jun 10 $3 $0 -0%
ITF Tokyo: Funa Kozaki vs Nao Nishino Jun 10 $3 −$2 -96%
Argentina vs. Iceland: O/U 2.5 Jun 10 $5 +$3 +50%
Will Flavio Cobolli win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Kazakhstan win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Argentina vs. Iceland: O/U 4.5 Jun 09 $5 −$5 -97%
ITF Wichita: Justin Boulais vs Ozan Baris Jun 09 $3 −$2 -96%
Saudi Arabia vs. Senegal: O/U 5.5 Jun 09 $5 −$5 -96%
Libema Open: James McCabe vs Zizou Bergs Jun 09 $5 $0 -9%
Modena: Giorgia Pedone vs Mayar Sherif Jun 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Cholet vs. Paris Basketball Jun 09 $5 −$5 -97%
Bratislava: Zsombor Piros vs Akira Santillan Jun 09 $4 +$1 +25%
Solana Up or Down - June 9, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 09 $1 $0 +15%
LoL: E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS vs GOAL - Game 2 Winner Jun 09 $5 +$4 +87%
Cattolica: Maks Kasnikowski vs Enrico Dalla Valle Jun 09 $5 −$5 -96%
Stuttgart Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 09 $8 +$3 +41%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 09 $3 −$3 -96%
Bratislava: Pedro Boscardin Dias vs Emilio Nava Jun 09 $5 −$5 -97%
Modena: Andrea Lazaro Garcia vs Julia Grabher Jun 09 $5 −$5 -98%
Stuttgart Open: Diego Dedura-Palomero vs James Duckworth Jun 09 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 09 $13 −$1 -4%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 09 $5 $0 -5%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 09 $5 $0 -3%
Ilkley: Dane Sweeny vs Oliver Okonkwo Jun 09 $4 +$1 +37%
Modena: Xinyu Gao vs Lucia Bronzetti Jun 09 $8 −$8 -96%
HSBC Championships: Laura Siegemund vs Francesca Jones Jun 09 $8 +$1 +12%
HSBC Championships: Shuai Zhang vs Alexandra Eala Jun 09 $2 −$1 -97%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $8 −$8 -97%
Stuttgart Open: Tom Gentzsch vs Rinky Hijikata Jun 09 $10 −$4 -41%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $5 20m
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 99¢ $3 25m
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) BUY Ecuador 5¢ $4 1h
ITF Cuiaba: Antonia Rivera vs Carolina Alves BUY Antonia Rivera 51¢ $1 1h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Tampa Bay Rays 50¢ $2 1h
France vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 70¢ $5 2h
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) BUY Ecuador 66¢ $3 2h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Draw at halftime? SELL Yes 99¢ $10 2h
Modena: Katarzyna Kawa vs Lucia Bronzetti BUY Katarzyna Kawa 30¢ $1 3h
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 89¢ $1 6h
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 14? BUY Yes 46¢ $1 8h
HSBC Championships: Donna Vekic vs Emma Raducanu BUY Donna Vekic 82¢ $1 8h
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 June 8-14? SELL Yes 8¢ $3 8h
Spread: Spurs (-18.5) BUY Spurs 16¢ $4 30h
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Dino Prizmic vs Rinky Hijikata BUY Dino Prizmic 55¢ $3 30h
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 June 8-14? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 2d
Tucuman: Lorenzo Joaquin Rodriguez vs Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida BUY Lorenzo Joaquin Rodriguez 6¢ $3 3d
Tucuman: Santiago Rodriguez Taverna vs Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi SELL Santiago Rodriguez Taverna 19¢ $5 3d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $5 3d
Tucuman: Lorenzo Joaquin Rodriguez vs Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida BUY Lorenzo Joaquin Rodriguez 26¢ $3 3d
Tucuman: Santiago Rodriguez Taverna vs Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi BUY Santiago Rodriguez Taverna 9¢ $3 3d
Cattolica: Dusan Lajovic vs Oriol Roca Batalla BUY Dusan Lajovic 62¢ $3 3d
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets BUY St. Louis Cardinals 56¢ $3 3d
Cattolica: Jesper de Jong vs Federico Bondioli BUY Jesper de Jong 71¢ $3 3d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? SELL Yes 5¢ $2 3d
Stuttgart Open: Jan-Lennard Struff vs Alexander Bublik BUY Jan-Lennard Struff 4¢ $3 4d
Stuttgart Open: Jan-Lennard Struff vs Alexander Bublik SELL Jan-Lennard Struff 3¢ $1 4d
Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5) BUY Toronto Blue Jays 29¢ $5 4d
Stuttgart Open: Jan-Lennard Struff vs Alexander Bublik BUY Jan-Lennard Struff 6¢ $3 4d
Lyon: Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo vs Luca Van Assche SELL Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo 99¢ $11 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $29.45 · official $29.45 (match) · 176 history records