Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T11:05:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
88 0x884b…be3c other 11 markets active 2h ago coverage 20d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$7 (+4%) realized +$6 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +4% what you keep after slip
Net edge+4%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate100%6W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Kalshi-fit9%portable
Net worth$110now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 20d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 97% +$8
world 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+4.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 6 +15.2% +4.3% 100% 50% +3.6%
≤90d 6 +15.2% +4.3% 100% 50% +3.6%
all 6 +15.2% +4.3% 100% 50% +3.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +4.3% 50% +3.6%
10% -5.7% 17% -6.3%
15% -14.8% 17% -15.4%
20% -23.2% 0% -23.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 70% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +14% too few recent
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +15% · $-wt +14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

20d coverage
Net worth$110
Realized+$6
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses6 / 0
Open positions5
Markets (closed)6 / 11
History coverage20d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit9%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 6 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 21¢ 21¢ $38 $39 +$0 (+0%)
World Cup: Ronaldo to Score 2+ Penalties? No 63¢ 87¢ $20 $28 +$8 (+38%)
World Cup: Ronaldo to Score a Free Kick? No 84¢ 92¢ $20 $22 +$2 (+10%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 11¢ $20 $15 −$5 (-23%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $10 $6 −$4 (-39%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $5 +$1 +14%
Will Iran Play in the World Cup? Jun 16 $5 $0 +4%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 $0 +6%
Will Haiti advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $10 +$1 +7%
Will Kai Havertz score 1+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $15 +$2 +16%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $5 +$2 +44%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 21¢ $39 1h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $21 6d
World Cup: Ronaldo to Score 2+ Penalties? BUY No 71¢ $5 10d
World Cup: Ronaldo to Score a Free Kick? BUY No 78¢ $5 10d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 12d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 6¢ $6 12d
Will Haiti advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 95¢ $11 13d
Will Kai Havertz score 1+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 86¢ $5 13d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 13d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 13d
Will Kai Havertz score 1+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 86¢ $10 13d
World Cup: Ronaldo to Score a Free Kick? BUY No 85¢ $5 13d
Will Haiti advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 87¢ $5 14d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $5 16d
World Cup: Ronaldo to Score a Free Kick? BUY No 86¢ $5 16d
World Cup: Ronaldo to Score a Free Kick? BUY No 87¢ $5 16d
World Cup: Ronaldo to Score 2+ Penalties? BUY No 54¢ $10 18d
Will Haiti advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 89¢ $5 19d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $5 19d
World Cup: Ronaldo to Score 2+ Penalties? BUY No 80¢ $5 20d
Will Iran Play in the World Cup? BUY Yes 96¢ $5 20d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $109.85 · official $109.69 (match) · 34 history records